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Solar radiation forecasting in nigeria based on hybrid PSO-ANFIS and WT-ANFIS approach Sani Salisu; Mohd Wazir Mustafa; Mamunu Mustapha; Olatunji Obalowu Mohammed
International Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering (IJECE) Vol 9, No 5: October 2019
Publisher : Institute of Advanced Engineering and Science

For an effective and reliable solar energy production, there is need for precise solar radiation knowledge. In this study, two hybrid approaches are investigated for horizontal solar radiation prediction in Nigeria. These approaches combine an Adaptive Neuro-fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) with Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Wavelet Transform (WT) algorithms. Meteorological data comprising of monthly mean sunshine hours (SH), relative humidity (RH), minimum temperature (Tmin) and maximum temperature (Tmax) ranging from 2002-2012 were utilized for the forecasting. Based on the statistical evaluators used for performance evaluation which are the root mean square error and the coefficient of determination (RMSE and R²), the two models were found to be very worthy models for solar radiation forecasting. The statistical indicators show that the hybrid WT-ANFIS model’s accuracy outperforms the PSO-ANFIS model by 65% RMSE and 9% R². The results show that hybridizing the ANFIS by PSO and WT algorithms is efficient for solar radiation forecasting even though the hybrid WT-ANFIS gives more accurate results.

A systematic approach to evaluating the influence of demand side management resources on the interarea capacity benefit margin Olatunji Obalowu Mohammed; Mohd Wazir Mustafa; Daw Saleh Sasi Mohammed; Sani Salisu; Nabila Ahmad Rufa’i
Bulletin of Electrical Engineering and Informatics Vol 8, No 4: December 2019
Publisher : Institute of Advanced Engineering and Science

Available transfer capability is an index to measure the security and economic viability of an interconnected system. However, to accurately determine this index, other associated parameters need to be accurately evaluated. One of these parameters is the capacity benefit margin (CBM). For efficient power generation reliability and sustainability, a certain amount of supply capacity is commonly reserved by utilities, which in most cases remain unused, to reduce the effect of generation outage. To minimize this unused reserve, utilities usually reserve a predetermined amount of tie-line capacity between interconnected areas to have access to external supply. This tie-line reserved for this purpose is termed as capacity benefit margin (CBM). In this paper a technique for computing CBM is used, the sensitivity of CBM support from other areas to the increase in load in one of the areas is investigated, and conclusively, demand side management is proposed to improve the quantification of CBM. The contribution of this work is the assessment of the CBMs support from other areas during a critical condition, using the flexibility of DSM technique. The modified 24-bus IEEE reliability test system is employed for the verification of the approach.

A systematic approach to evaluating the influence of demand side management resources on the interarea capacity benefit margin Olatunji Obalowu Mohammed; Mohd Wazir Mustafa; Daw Saleh Sasi Mohammed; Sani Salisu; Nabila Ahmad Rufa’i
Bulletin of Electrical Engineering and Informatics Vol 8, No 4: December 2019
Publisher : Institute of Advanced Engineering and Science

Available transfer capability is an index to measure the security and economic viability of an interconnected system. However, to accurately determine this index, other associated parameters need to be accurately evaluated. One of these parameters is the capacity benefit margin (CBM). For efficient power generation reliability and sustainability, a certain amount of supply capacity is commonly reserved by utilities, which in most cases remain unused, to reduce the effect of generation outage. To minimize this unused reserve, utilities usually reserve a predetermined amount of tie-line capacity between interconnected areas to have access to external supply. This tie-line reserved for this purpose is termed as capacity benefit margin (CBM). In this paper a technique for computing CBM is used, the sensitivity of CBM support from other areas to the increase in load in one of the areas is investigated, and conclusively, demand side management is proposed to improve the quantification of CBM. The contribution of this work is the assessment of the CBMs support from other areas during a critical condition, using the flexibility of DSM technique. The modified 24-bus IEEE reliability test system is employed for the verification of the approach.

Assessment of the influence of wind energy incorporated capacity benefit margin in ATC computation Olatunji Obalowu Mohammed; Mohd Wazir Mustafa; Sani Salisu; Ahsanullah Memon; Saddam Hussain; Abdulrahaman Okino Otuoze; Oladimeji Ibrahim
International Journal of Applied Power Engineering (IJAPE) Vol 11, No 2: June 2022
Publisher : Institute of Advanced Engineering and Science

Available transfer capability (ATC) is an important metric used to measure the techno-economic viability of the transmission networks. Several methods have been presented in literature for ATC assessment, however, only some few articles incorporate CBM in ATC calculation and those few papers only considered conventional power generation sources in CBM evaluation. CBM is a function of the reliability of generating units. This paper presents the inter-area CBM calculation in the presence of wind energy source using graph theory technique and the results are incorporated in ATC computation using repeated power flow. CBM is incorporated in ATC computation as non-recallable and recallable power transfers. The results with and without CBM incorporation, in the presence of wind power system, are compared. The contribution of the paper is to study the influence of wind power (WP) integrated CBM on ATC evaluation. The results showed that the incorporation of CBM, in the presence of renewable energy, has a significant influence on ATC, without which ATC would be inaccurately estimated. Simulations using IEEE 24-Bus RTS is used to implement the proposed approach. This approach can be employed by transmission operators to assess the technoeconomic viability of the power network for possible power transactions.

A systematic approach to evaluating the influence of demand side management resources on the interarea capacity benefit margin Olatunji Obalowu Mohammed; Mohd Wazir Mustafa; Daw Saleh Sasi Mohammed; Sani Salisu; Nabila Ahmad Rufa’i
Bulletin of Electrical Engineering and Informatics Vol 8, No 4: December 2019
Publisher : Institute of Advanced Engineering and Science

Available transfer capability is an index to measure the security and economic viability of an interconnected system. However, to accurately determine this index, other associated parameters need to be accurately evaluated. One of these parameters is the capacity benefit margin (CBM). For efficient power generation reliability and sustainability, a certain amount of supply capacity is commonly reserved by utilities, which in most cases remain unused, to reduce the effect of generation outage. To minimize this unused reserve, utilities usually reserve a predetermined amount of tie-line capacity between interconnected areas to have access to external supply. This tie-line reserved for this purpose is termed as capacity benefit margin (CBM). In this paper a technique for computing CBM is used, the sensitivity of CBM support from other areas to the increase in load in one of the areas is investigated, and conclusively, demand side management is proposed to improve the quantification of CBM. The contribution of this work is the assessment of the CBMs support from other areas during a critical condition, using the flexibility of DSM technique. The modified 24-bus IEEE reliability test system is employed for the verification of the approach.

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