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Estimasi Persamaan Sistem Non Linear Seemingly Unrelated Regression pada Model Perdagangan Internasional Ekananda, Mahyus
Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia Vol 4, No 2 (2004): Januari
Publisher : Department of Economics-FEUI

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The purpose of this paper is to explain the algorithm solution for system equation which has non linier form in its parameter, especially in system equation of seemingly unrelated regression. For example, the economic model which is used in this paper is taken from disertation of Ekananda (2003) with its topic of the uncertainty of exchange rates volatility on manufacture commodity export in Indonesia. Particularly, this paper will discuss the model formation by inserting poissons probability function, which cause the non linier form. For the next application, this method can be used for all non linier form especially the non linier form on its parameter. This paper will discuss the utilization of trade standard equation which is developed become non linier system equation of trade by inserting the element of poisons probability, the dynamics of equation and the simultaneous equation.

Implikasi Penentuan Nilai Tukar Dengan Kesimbangan Portofolio Untuk Jangka Pendek Abijoso, Kristian Coernia; Ekananda, Mahyus
Manajemen Krida Wacana vol. 4 no. 1 Januari 2004
Publisher : Manajemen Krida Wacana

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Estimasi Persamaan Sistem Non Linear Seemingly Unrelated Regression pada Model Perdagangan Internasional Ekananda, Mahyus
Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia Vol 4 No 2 (2004): Januari
Publisher : Department of Economics-FEB UI

The purpose of this paper is to explain the algorithm solution for system equation which has non linier form in its parameter, especially in system equation of seemingly unrelated regression. For example, the economic model which is used in this paper is taken from disertation of Ekananda (2003) with its topic of the uncertainty of exchange rates volatility on manufacture commodity export in Indonesia. Particularly, this paper will discuss the model formation by inserting poissons probability function, which cause the non linier form. For the next application, this method can be used for all non linier form especially the non linier form on its parameter. This paper will discuss the utilization of trade standard equation which is developed become non linier system equation of trade by inserting the element of poisons probability, the dynamics of equation and the simultaneous equation.

ANALISIS PENGARUH VOLATILITAS NILAI TUKAR PADA EKSPOR KOMODITI MANUFAKTUR DI INDONESIA PENERAPAN ESTIMASI DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN DISTRIBUSI LAG POISSONS PADA PERSAMAAN NON LINEAR SEEMINGLY UNRELATED REGRESSION Dr. Mahyus Ekananda MM., MSE
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 7 No 2 (2004)
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

The purpose of this paper is to explain the uncertainty of exchange rate volatility effect to international trade. Its effect to international trade, specially quantity of export, come from accumulation exchange rate fluctuation from several lag. For the record, some previous researches which found out the impact of exchange rates on trade did not consider some of the things. First, the existence of inconstancy on trade. Namely, depend on the change of elasticity along the time of observations. Secondly, the number of lag in independent variable which is needed in order to record the highest impact. Third, there is an accumulation of impact in some previous period. The industry with lower import content become easier to maintain the export level. Export adjustment will occure with different time. This paper found that the industry with lower import content has faster export adjusment than higner import content. The data will separate into two different import content. The industry with higher import content will reduce the export if exchange rate volatility increase.The other purpose of this paper is to explain the algorithm solution for system equation which has non linier form in its parameter, especially in system equation of seemingly unrelated regression. Particularly, this paper will discuss the model formation by inserting poissons probability function, which cause the non linier form. Inserting poissons distibution probablity to equation of trade can estimate the time of adjustment that has a best distribution. Then, this paper will explain the implementation that had been done by Ekananda (2003) about poisons probability function on system equation, the dynamics of equation and the simultaneous equation by using Hausman algorithm (1975).

DISINTERMEDIASI FUNGSI PERBANKAN DI INDONESIA PASCA KRISIS 1997 : Faktor Permintaan Atau Penawaran Kredit, Sebuah Pendekatan Dengan Model Disequilibrium Harmanta Harmanta; Dr. Mahyus Ekananda
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 8 No 1 (2005)
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

The goal of this paper is to analyze the determinants of bank credit declining, whether is dominated by the supply or the credit demand, post the financial crisis in Indonesia. This paper is a sort of New Keynesian approach, which pre assume the imperfectness of the credit market and hence create disequilibrium.Using the switching regression model and Maximum Likelihood Estimation to determine the probability of supply or demand determination, the result shows the existence of excess demand of credit during the crisis period, 1997/ 1998, confirming the credit crunch situation. After the crisis, the condition is reversed, where the credit supply is higher than the credit demand. The two findings implicitely shows the inflexibility of interest rate to equalize the credit market.JEL: D43, D82, E44, E51Keywords : Disintermediasi, kredit, disequilibrium, maximum likelihood, persamaan simultan, switching regression

MACROECONOMIC CONDITION AND BANKING INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE IN INDONESIA Mahjus Ekananda
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 20 No 1 (2017)
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

The ratio of non-performing loan (NPL) and capital adequacy ratio (CAR) is still a measure of bank soundness in various countries including Indonesia. Interdependence acros bank’s condition, diversity of the size, market structure within banking industry, and macroeconomic variables, may be very complex and dynamic. This paper utilizes the advantage of PVAR model on capturing this complexity to analyze the dynamic relationship between the macroeconomic variables and the soundness of the banks. The result shows NPL of banks with small asset will increases rapidly when interest rate fluctuates. For banks with large asset, the increase in interest rates leads to larger reduction on their CAR. On the other hand, the result shows banks with smaller capital are less able to adapt quickly to an increase in NPL due to exchangerate depreciation, therefore banks with smaller capital should be cautious about the exchange rate risk.

Analisis Fenomena Heterogenous Dampak Perubahan Nilai Tukar terhadap Inflasi di ASEAN-5 Ashadi Asral Rawang; Mahjus Ekananda
Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia Vol 22 No 1 (2022): Januari 2022
Publisher : Department of Economics-FEB UI

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21002/jepi.v22i1.1290

Asian’s financial crisis in 1997/1998 is a crisis that caused by exchange rate change which is contagious from one to another country. By having an active regional financial cooperation, this crisis can be prevented better. In the context of regional coordination, it is important to know the impact of exchange rate on inflation, whether it has a homogenous or heterogenous impact across ASEAN countries. By forming data panel of ASEAN-5, using broadmoney, trade openness and trading partner inflation rate as control variable with FGLS Estimator, it is known that the impact of exchange rate on Inflation in ASEAN-5 is heterogeneous. ........................................... Krisis keuangan di Asia tahun 1997/1998 yang terjadi merupakan krisis yang antara lain disebabkan oleh perubahan nilai tukar yang menjalar dari suatu negara ke negara lain (contagious). Krisis dapat dicegah lebih baik dengan kerja sama keuangan yang lebih aktif. Dalam konteks kerja sama, penting diketahui apakah dampak nilai tukar terhadap inflasi bersifat homogen atau heterogen (beragam) di ASEAN-5. Data panel yang dibentuk dengan pertumbuhan jumlah uang yang beredar, derajat keterbukaan perdagangan, dan tingkat inflasi di negara mitra dagang utama ASEAN-5 sebagai variabel kontrol dan menggunakan estimator FGLS, diketahui bahwa dampak nilai tukar terhadap inflasi di ASEAN-5 berdampak heterogen.

THE DETERMINANTS OF SAVINGS IN INDONESIAN HOUSEHOLDS (USING IFLS DATA) Syofriza Syofyan; Mahjus Ekananda
Media Ekonomi Vol. 29 No. 2 (2021): Oktober
Publisher : Lembaga Penerbit Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis

The growing concern among researchers and analysts with regard to the decline in savings amounts is not without intention, interest and purpose. As saving is a personal and individual matter, an approach in which people are urged to augment their savings cannot be taken for granted. Yet while everyone has their own unique set of needs, preferences, motives and habits, this research aims to identify the typical factors that determine household saving in Indonesia. The model to test which factors are the most important is saving as a function of income, consumption, demographic status, psychological, institutional, and financial literacy. The respondents were derived from the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS) from periods 2007 and 2014. Using quantile regression, we found income to be the most significant factor for saving in 2007 followed by education attainment, employment status and past saving experience. In 2014, the most influential factors were income, risk preference, employment status, urban/rural location and disincentives for going to the bank. Access to finance may offer the potential to resolve the whole of the financial issue for both sides, the demanders and suppliers of microfinancing, both individually and institutionally

Dampak Perubahan Tarif Penalti Terhadap Kepatuhan Pajak: Bukti Kuasi Eksperimental Pada Bunga Penagihan Mukhammad Syarifuddin; Mahjus Ekananda
AKSES: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Vol 17, No 2 (2022): AKSES: JURNAL EKONOMI DAN BISNIS
Publisher : Universitas Wahid Hasyim

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31942/akses.v17i2.7461

Penelitian ini menganalisa dampak perubahan tarif bunga penagihan (late payment penalties) yang ditetapkan oleh Menteri Keuangan. Kami memanfaatkan peristiwa perubahan tarif bunga dari tarif sebesar 2 persen per bulan menjadi sekitar 0,50 persen per bulan sejak 2 November 2020, untuk masuk ke dalam desain regresi diskontinuitas dalam waktu (RDiT). Teori ekonomi klasik memprediksi bahwa penalti yang rendah cenderung menimbulkan perilaku tidak patuh. Namun, hasil studi ini justru menunjukkan bahwa penurunan tarif bunga penagihan berpengaruh positif signifikan terhadap respon pembayaran. Hal ini memberi simpulan bahwa kepatuhan sukarela tidak selalu linier dengan tarif penalti yang tinggi, bahkan pada kapasitas deteksi yang cenderung tetap. Perilaku wajib pajak dapat dijelaskan dengan bukti empiris yang kuat. Oleh karena itu, kami menyarankan ekstraksi dan kategorisasi basis data untuk memudahkan identifikasi dan analisis data perilaku. Hal ini akan membantu memprediksi strategi kepatuhan lain misal otomasi pembayaran tunggakan atau tindakan penagihan berdasarkan kategori resiko.

Threshold Panel Method for Analysis of the Effect of Banking Investment Allocation on Banking Performance, A Cross Country Studies: Some OECD Countries Mahjus Ekananda
Jurnal Ekonomi Kuantitatif Terapan 2022: Vol. 15, No. 2, Agustus 2022 (pp.162-339)
Publisher : Universitas Udayana

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24843/JEKT.2022.v15.i02.p02

The direction of globalization and the integration of the financial system continues to increase in line with the trend of increasing capital flows which is the focus of discussion in this research. This study applies panel data analysis to analyze banking behavior to improve its performance. The analysis uses a linear model and a threshold model—panel data from 1991 to 2020 in 39 countries. Threshold panel regression is a non-linear model applied in this study to prove a change in the impact of independent variables that affect banking performance in specific regimes. In general, the linear model Coef.icients are as expected according to the theory. Analysis using threshold panel regression will give more profound results and higher intuition. Threshold panel regression has a smaller SSR value than the linear model. This study applies one threshold value to produce two different regimes. Changes in the impact occur at a certain threshold. Conclusively, this study finds threshold values ??for GDP growth, Concentration, Inflation, Leverage, Efficiency, and Credit Allocation. The GDP growth rate as a threshold is the most efficient model. The Coef.icients on the threshold panel regression model generally are in line with theoretical expectations. Still, some differences become the advantages of this non-linear model, revealing different economic conditions.

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