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Estimation of Distribution Function Parameters for Cases of Risk of Mortality Rate due to Malnutrition and Unhealthy Sanitation in Indonesia Moch Panji Agung Saputra; Tubagus Robbi Megantara; Sulidar Fitri
International Journal of Global Operations Research Vol 3, No 1 (2022)
Publisher : iora

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47194/ijgor.v3i1.117

Abstract

Child undernutrition is a significant problem in Indonesia; persistently high rates of stunting, underweight and wasting. Data about malnutrition and sanitation that taken for this research is data of age-standardized death rate, measured per 100,000 individuals from unsafe sanitation and malnutrition in Indonesia. The purpose of this research is to determine the distribution function and estimate the parameter distribution, so the values can provide identification of risk events. The method used for this research is Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and Newton Raphson iterations. The distribution function formed is gamma and Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD), respectively for sanitation and malnutrition problems in Indonesia. The projected probability of occurrence of the risk of death due to malnutrition tends to be low in the future. So that the risk classification of the mortality rate due to malnutrition is considered low based on the results of the probability distribution approach on the GPD function. While, the projected probability of occurrence of the risk of death due to sanitation tends to decrease in the future. Based on the graph, the risk value with a high probability is around 20. So, the risk classification of the mortality rate due to malnutrition is considered moderate based on the results of the probability distribution approach on this gamma function.
Teak Wood Marketing Mix and It’s Contribution to Communities Around the Forest Area at Perum Perhutani KPH Tasikmalaya Inqita Zahra; Moch Panji Agung Saputra
International Journal of Global Operations Research Vol 3, No 1 (2022)
Publisher : iora

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47194/ijgor.v3i1.121

Abstract

Perum Perhutani's revenue is dominated by the sale of teak and rosin. Sales of teak wood from Perum Perhutani KPH Tasikmalaya has been decreasing during the Covid-19 pandemic, due to some marketing constraints. The objectives of this study were: (1) to analyze the marketing efficiency of teak wood at Perum Perhutani KPH Tasikmalaya, (2) to analyze the marketing mix strategy of teak wood at Perum Perhutani KPH Tasikmalaya, and (3) to analyze the contribution of the utilization of teak by Perum Perhutani to the total household income of the community. around the forest in KPH Tasikmalaya. The marketing efficiency of teak wood is analyzed using three indicators, namely marketing margin, farmer's share, and the ratio of profit to the marketing cost. Marketing mix strategy analysis and contribution analysis were conducted by in-depth interviews with respondents and observation techniques. This study indicates that the marketing of teak wood is relatively efficient and profitable for producers because it has a large farmer's share value and K/B ratio (profits to marketing costs), namely 100% and 19.60, respectively. In addition, the marketing margin on the marketing of teak produces a very low value of IDR0. The implementation of the marketing mix strategy is well implemented by Perum Perhutani KPH Tasikmalaya. However, it is necessary to pay attention to the promotion aspect, namely the expansion of the marketing system through the internet, and the production aspect, namely the policy on teak wood product guarantees. The utilization of teak wood in Perum Perhutani KPH Tasikmalaya contributes to the total household income by 32%. The contribution of teak wood utilization in PHBM activities is only as additional income because overall the income from non-PHBM activities is greater than the income from PHBM activities.
Estimation of Reserve Funds for E-Banking Transactions using Operational Value-at-Risks Nurfadhlina Abdul Halim; Moch Panji Agung Saputra
International Journal of Global Operations Research Vol 3, No 1 (2022)
Publisher : iora

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47194/ijgor.v3i1.124

Abstract

The “New Normal” state during the pandemic has made digital financial transactions important as an effort to reduce direct human interaction, to prevent the spread of the pandemic. The rate of financial transactions at banks has automatically increased, but in practice, several risks may occur about failed or incorrect digital transactions. Examples of digital transaction system risks are downtime and timeout services due to system failures, cyber-attacks, and system usage errors. These risks need attention from banking companies. One way to anticipate digital financial transaction failure happen is the readiness of a reserve fund that is used to cover the wrong amount of fund error in the bank's digital system. This research will discuss the estimation of operational reserve funds for digital banking financial transactions (e-banking) using the Operational Value-at-Risk (OpVaR) method, based on operational risk data for digital financial transactions to obtain the largest potential loss value from digital financial transaction activities at a bank. Based on calculations using the OpVaR method, it is known that the reserve fund required for the operational risk of digital financial transactions is IDR135,465,044,269.741. The results of this study show that the e-banking operational reserve fund is quite large due to the possibility of extreme losses. This provides a view to avoiding the worst risk of collapse due to an imbalance in the required reserve funds.
ESTIMASI POTENSI KLAIM MAKSIMAL DALAM RISIKO KERUGIAN KEBAKARAN RUMAH DENGAN METODE EXTREME VALUE THEORY (EVT) DI KOTA BANDUNG Moch Panji Agung Saputra; Endang Soeryana Hasbullah; Firman Sukono
KUBIK Vol 5, No 2 (2020): KUBIK: Jurnal Publikasi Ilmiah Matematika
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika, Fakultas Sains dan Teknologi, UIN Sunan Gunung Djati Bandung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15575/kubik.v5i2.7445

Abstract

Permasalahan kebakaran rumah di kawasan padat penduduk memiliki tingkat risiko yang cukup tinggi. Salah satu kota besar dengan risiko tersebut adalah Kota Bandung. Risiko tersebut menimbulkan rasa khawatir dari masyarakat sehingga memunculkan produk-produk asuransi kebakaran rumah. Produk asuransi dibuat untuk melindungi konsumen dari risiko yang dijamin oleh sebuah premi. Perusahaan asuransi membentuk premi berdasarkan analisis perhitungan potensi klaim, biaya, komisi, dan margin. Dalam makalah ini dibahas tentang bagaimana mengestimasi potensi klaim maksimal dari risiko kebakaran rumah. Dalam hal ini potensi klaim didapat berdasarkan nilai kerugian kebakaran rumah tahunan (2007-2018) di Kota Bandung. Untuk mengestimasi potensi klaim maksimal dilakukan dengan metode Extreme Value Theory (EVT). Ada beberapa tahap dalam penelitian ini. Langkah pertama adalah melakukan resampling data dengan Maximum Entropy Botstraping (MEBoot). Selanjutnya, menentukan nilai threshold untuk mendapatkan data ekstrim. Kemudian, dilakukan uji Kolmogorov Smirnov untuk mengetahui kesesuaian data ekstrim dengan Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). Setelah itu, melakukan estimasi parameter GPD. Kemudian, menghitung nilai Operational Value-at-Risk (OpVaR) sebagai ukuran potensi klaim maksimal. Hasil penelitian ini mendapatkan potensi klaim maksimal untuk satu tahun kedepan adalah Rp.18.690.352.676,615 dengan tingkat kepercayaan 95%. Berdasarkan estimasi potensi klaim tersebut dapat dijadikan dasar pembuatan produk asuransi kebakaran rumah yang sesuai untuk masyarakat Kota Bandung.
MSMEs Marketplace Application Design "NUTREAZY": Food Delivery Service Based on Nutrition Optimization Moch Panji Agung Saputra; Muhammad Herlambang Prakasa Yudha; Faizal FaMusthofa; Ahmad Ihsan Fathurrizki
International Journal of Research in Community Services Vol 2, No 2 (2021)
Publisher : Research Collaboration Community (RCC)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46336/ijrcs.v2i2.210

Abstract

NUTREAZY is a marketplace application that provides food delivery service with complete nutritional information. This application can provide food menu recommendations based on optimization of nutritional fulfillment at the most optimal price. This marketplace application was created to provide solutions to the problems of food needs and intake in today's millennial era. Millennials tend to want food that is practical, easy to get, but at an affordable price. These habits make the millennial society's eating patterns become instantaneous. In addition, the role of the NUTREAZY application innovation is to increase the branding of quality MSME products and attract consumer buying interest. Delivery services can add value to the services of MSMEs while at the same time responding to the wishes of the millennial community with digital services that are easily available.
ESTIMASI POTENSI KLAIM MAKSIMAL DALAM RISIKO KERUGIAN KEBAKARAN RUMAH DENGAN METODE EXTREME VALUE THEORY (EVT) DI KOTA BANDUNG Moch Panji Agung Saputra; Endang Soeryana Hasbullah; Firman Sukono
KUBIK Vol 5, No 2 (2020): KUBIK: Jurnal Publikasi Ilmiah Matematika
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika, Fakultas Sains dan Teknologi, UIN Sunan Gunung Djati Bandung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15575/kubik.v5i2.7445

Abstract

Permasalahan kebakaran rumah di kawasan padat penduduk memiliki tingkat risiko yang cukup tinggi. Salah satu kota besar dengan risiko tersebut adalah Kota Bandung. Risiko tersebut menimbulkan rasa khawatir dari masyarakat sehingga memunculkan produk-produk asuransi kebakaran rumah. Produk asuransi dibuat untuk melindungi konsumen dari risiko yang dijamin oleh sebuah premi. Perusahaan asuransi membentuk premi berdasarkan analisis perhitungan potensi klaim, biaya, komisi, dan margin. Dalam makalah ini dibahas tentang bagaimana mengestimasi potensi klaim maksimal dari risiko kebakaran rumah. Dalam hal ini potensi klaim didapat berdasarkan nilai kerugian kebakaran rumah tahunan (2007-2018) di Kota Bandung. Untuk mengestimasi potensi klaim maksimal dilakukan dengan metode Extreme Value Theory (EVT). Ada beberapa tahap dalam penelitian ini. Langkah pertama adalah melakukan resampling data dengan Maximum Entropy Botstraping (MEBoot). Selanjutnya, menentukan nilai threshold untuk mendapatkan data ekstrim. Kemudian, dilakukan uji Kolmogorov Smirnov untuk mengetahui kesesuaian data ekstrim dengan Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). Setelah itu, melakukan estimasi parameter GPD. Kemudian, menghitung nilai Operational Value-at-Risk (OpVaR) sebagai ukuran potensi klaim maksimal. Hasil penelitian ini mendapatkan potensi klaim maksimal untuk satu tahun kedepan adalah Rp.18.690.352.676,615 dengan tingkat kepercayaan 95%. Berdasarkan estimasi potensi klaim tersebut dapat dijadikan dasar pembuatan produk asuransi kebakaran rumah yang sesuai untuk masyarakat Kota Bandung.
Time Series Model Analysis Using Autocorrelation Function (ACF) and Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF) for E-wallet Transactions during a Pandemic Usman Abbas Yakubu; Moch Panji Agung Saputra
International Journal of Global Operations Research Vol 3, No 3 (2022)
Publisher : iora

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47194/ijgor.v3i3.168

Abstract

The use of e-wallet can be accessed easily via the internet, this can create a positive impact for economic stability after the Covid-19 pandemic. This can move the wheels of the community's economy, through online shopping and the use of e-wallet among the public. The use of a number of digital services in Indonesia has increased during the Covid-19 pandemic. The first position is occupied by e-commerce and the second position is occupied by digital wallets which increased by 65%. Based on data from the increasing number of e-wallet service users in Indonesia. There are several forms of e-wallet that have a large scale, such as GoPay, OVO, Tokopedia, and Bukalapak. Several types of e-wallets can be analyzed for time series models, so that they can help project e-wallet transactions in the post-pandemic future. The method for obtaining the time series model is using the Autocorrelation Function (ACF) and the Patial Autocorrelation Function (PACF).
Estimation of Generalized Pareto Distribution Parameters in Traffic Accident Loss Data Modeling Rabiu Hamisu Kankarofi; Galang Hawy Alfarisi; Moch Panji Agung Saputra
International Journal of Global Operations Research Vol 3, No 2 (2022)
Publisher : iora

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47194/ijgor.v3i2.165

Abstract

The problem of traffic accidents in Indonesia has a high level of risk. In an effort to minimize losses due to traffic accidents, it is necessary to study the data and characteristics of traffic accidents and identify these events as extreme events. This study was conducted to find out how to estimate the shape and scale parameters using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE), and to explore data on traffic accident losses in Indonesia. The method used to analyze the extreme value of traffic accident losses is the Extreme Value Theory. One approach to identify extreme values is Peaks Over Threshold which follows the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). Traffic accident loss data is divided into three types based on the cause, namely driver negligence, vehicle quality, and other external factors in the period (2008-2017). Estimation of shape and scale parameters is obtained through MLE which is then solved by Newton Raphson because it produces equations that are not closed form. This study resulted in an estimate of the shape and scale of the GPD distribution parameter, as well as a confidence interval (1-α) of 100% with of 5%. In addition, it is concluded that the parameters obtained from the estimation have the same characteristics for each type of risk analyzed, but have different parameter values. Based on parameter estimation, GPD distribution is obtained from each risk which is expected to be useful for related parties in analyzing the number of traffic accident losses in the next period to consider steps that can be taken to reduce losses due to traffic accidents.
Business Development through Literacy-Based Digital Financial Services for Agribusiness Microfinance Institutions Moch Panji Agung Saputra; Rabiu Hamisu Kankarofi; Fahmi Sidiq
International Journal of Ethno-Sciences and Education Research Vol 3, No 1 (2023)
Publisher : Research Collaboration Community (RCC)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46336/ijeer.v3i1.401

Abstract

The agricultural sector plays an important role for the welfare of society. Agriculture plays a role as a producer of food, employment, and a source of foreign exchange for the country. However, the Indonesian agricultural sector still has several problems, namely: 1) Farming capital; 2) Agricultural technology tools; and 3) Marketing of agricultural products. In this regard, one solution that can solve the problem jointly is the existence of an Agribusiness Micro Finance Institution or also known as Lembaga Keuangan Mikro Agribisnis (LKM-A) in Indonesian. LKM-A is a liaison for the easy access of agricultural businesses to various productive resources, namely: capital, technology, and marketing. Along with the role of helping the farming community, there are also several problems faced by LKM-A itself. LKM-A has three main problems, namely 1) LKM-A's limited income because it only pivots on one business scheme, namely members' savings and loans; 2) The management system is still conventional due to lack of access to technology; and 3) Financial services from LKM-A are still limited and conventional. Therefore, this study aims to solve the LKM-A problem. Solutions as problem solvers that will be implemented in this study through theoretical and practical assistance (guidance and training) consist of: 1) Developing business schemes to increase LKM-A income and member welfare, through farming capital financing schemes, agricultural technology rental services, and digital-based marketing of agricultural products; 2) Develop digital-based business management using several supporting systems such as the Database Management System (DBMS), Microsoft outlook, google spreadsheet, and Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP); 3) Develop digital financial system-based business services with digital payments through chip-based E-Money, fintech E-wallet, EDC, and QRis.