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Journal : Jurnal Teknik Industri

Deteksi Keausan Alat pada Proses Pengeboran Sumber Alam Halim, Siana; ., Felecia
Jurnal Teknik Industri Vol 14, No 2 (2012): DECEMBER 2012
Publisher : Institute of Research and Community Outreach - Petra Christian University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (367.589 KB) | DOI: 10.9744/jti.14.2.123-128

Abstract

In this paper we applied change point detection methods for failures detection in the drilling process. We calculated the change points on three drilling parameters, i.e., the weight on bit, top drive torque and rate of penetration. Using the concept of reliability, we measured the time between change points as the time between failures. The minimum of mean time between change points from those three parameters is suggested to be the time for monitoring the drilling process.
Pemodelan Time Series Multivariat secara Automatis Halim, Siana; Chandra, Arif
Jurnal Teknik Industri Vol 13, No 1 (2011): JUNE 2011
Publisher : Institute of Research and Community Outreach - Petra Christian University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (276.467 KB) | DOI: 10.9744/jti.13.1.19-26

Abstract

This research aims at establishing model of multivariate time series by means of econometric instruments. Four instruments in use are vector auto regressive (VAR), structural vector auto regressive (SVAR), vector error correction model (VECM), and structural vector error correction (SVEC). VAR and VECM are employed to estimate and construct models and, subsequently, predict the future values of an object. SVAR and SVEC serve to analyze innovative structures of a model. VAR and SVAR can be implemented only to stationary data whilst VECM and SVEC can be applied to non-stationary inputs. The identification and estimation of the model in this research are specifically designed by R software. Based on this software, all the aforestated models are conclusively able to identify dynamic relationship of endogenous variabel in a model well.
PENERAPAN JARINGAN SARAF TIRUAN UNTUK PERAMALAN Halim, Siana; Wibisono, Adrian Michael
Jurnal Teknik Industri Vol 2, No 2 (2000): DESEMBER 2000
Publisher : Institute of Research and Community Outreach - Petra Christian University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (139.371 KB) | DOI: 10.9744/jti.2.2.pp. 106-114

Abstract

Many methods have been developed to get the optimal result in forecasting. One of them that will be used in this paper is using Neural Network for forecasting. The result will be compared with GARCH(1,1) in the terms of Means Absolute Deviation (MAD) and Means Square Error (MSE). Besides that the accuracy and the power to damp the jump will be observed. The data is currency rate from 4 countries in Asia taken during the Asian Monetary Crisis from 1997 up to 1999 since the jump was happened in that series. Abstract in Bahasa Indonesia : Ada banyak metode yang telah dikembangkan untuk mencapai hasil yang optimal dari suatu peramalan. Salah satu yang akan diulas pada makalah ini adalah penggunaan Neural Network atau jaringan saraf untuk mendapatkan hasil peramalan yang diharapkan dapat meningkatkan optimasi dan akurasinya. Hasil dari metode ini akan dibandingkan dengan metode GARCH(1,1) dalam bentuk Means Absolute Deviation (MAD) dan Means Square Error (MSE). Selain itu dilakukan pula pengamatan terhadap peredaman jump (perubahan mendadak). Data yang digunakan adalah nilai tukar mata uang dari empat negara di Asia yang diambil selama krisis moneter di Asia. Kata Kunci: Backpropagation, MAD, MSE, GARCH(1,1), jump.
Pemetaan Penderita Pneumonia di Surabaya dengan Menggunakan Geostatistik Hartanto, Stefanie; Halim, Siana; Yuliana, Oviliani Yenty
Jurnal Teknik Industri Vol 12, No 1 (2010): JUNE 2010
Publisher : Institute of Research and Community Outreach - Petra Christian University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (294.777 KB) | DOI: 10.9744/jti.12.1.pp. 41-46

Abstract

In this paper we mapped the location of Pneumonia disease in Surabaya. We also analyse the survival of the afflicted and predict the spread of the disease using Kriging. The study reveals that after 45 days in the hospital, the survival of the Pneumonia’s patients decrease to 46.8%. Moreover, the centers of this disease are in Tubanan and Sukomanunggal Both of these regions are in West Surabaya which also is an industrial part of the city.
Statistical Learning for Predicting Dengue Fever Rate in Surabaya Halim, Siana; Felecia, Felecia; Octavia, Tanti
Jurnal Teknik Industri Vol 22, No 1 (2020): JTI June 2020
Publisher : Institute of Research and Community Outreach - Petra Christian University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (503.901 KB) | DOI: 10.9744/jti.22.1.37-46

Abstract

Dengue fever happening most in tropical countries and considered as the fastest spreading mosquito-borne disease which is endemic and estimated to have 96 million cases annually. It is transmitted by Aedes mosquito which infected with a dengue virus. Therefore, predicting the dengue fever rate as become the subject of researches in many tropical countries. Some of them use statistical and machine learning approach to predict the rate of the disease so that the government can prevent that incident. In this study, we explore many models in the statistical learning approaches for predicting the dengue fever rate. We applied several methods in the predictive statistics such as regression, spatial regression, geographically weighted regression and robust geographically weighted regression to predict the dengue fever rate in Surabaya. We then analyse the results, compare them based on the mean square error. Those four models are chosen, to show the global estimator’s approaches, e.g. regression, and the local ones, e.g. geographically weighted regression. The model with the minimum mean square error is regarded as the most suitable model in the statistical learning area for solving the problem. Here, we look at the estimates of the dengue fever rate in the year 2012, to 2017, area, poverty percen­tage, precipitation, number of rainy days for predicting the dengue fever outbreak in the year 2018. In this study, the pattern of the predicted model can follow the pattern of the true dataset.
PETA KENDALI X DENGAN UKURAN SAMPEL DAN INTERVAL PENGAMBILAN SAMPEL YANG BERVARIASI Singgih, Pauline Astari; Halim, Siana; Octavia, Tanti
Jurnal Teknik Industri Vol 2, No 2 (2000): DESEMBER 2000
Publisher : Institute of Research and Community Outreach - Petra Christian University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.9744/jti.2.2.pp. 72-83

Abstract

Shewhart X chart is widely used in statistical process control for monitoring variable data and has shown good performance in detecting large mean shift but less sensitive in detecting moderate to small process shift. X chart with variable sample size and sampling interval (VSSI X chart) is proposed to enhance the ability of detecting moderate to small process shift. The performance of VSSI X chart is compared with those of Shewhart X chart, VSS X chart (Variable Sample Size X chart) and VSI X chart (Variable Sampling Interval X chart). Performance of these control charts is presented in the form of ATS (Average Time to Signal) which is obtained from computer simulation and markov chain approach. The VSSI X chart shows better performance in detecting moderate mean shift. The simulation is then continued for VSSI X chart and VSS X chart with minimum sample size n 1=1 and n 1=2. Abstract in Bahasa Indonesia : Peta kendali X Shewhart telah umum digunakan dalam pengendalian proses statistis untuk data variabel dan terbukti berfungsi dengan baik untuk mendeteksi pergeseran rerata yang besar, namun kurang cepat dalam mendeteksi pergeseran rerata yang sedang hingga kecil. Untuk mengatasi kelemahan ini, diusulkan penggunaan peta kendali X dengan ukuran sampel dan interval pengambilan sampel yang bervariasi (peta kendali VSSI). Kinerja peta kendali X VSSI dibandingkan dengan kinerja peta kendali Shewhart, peta kendali X VSS (peta kendali X dengan ukuran sampel yang bervariasi), dan peta kendali X VSI (peta kendali X dengan interval waktu pengambilan sampel yang bervariasi). Kinerja peta kendali dinyatakan dalam nilai ATS (Average Time to Signal) yang didapatkan dari hasil simulasi program komputer maupun perhitungan Rantai Markov. Peta kendali X VSSI terbukti mempunyai kinerja yang lebih baik dalam mendeteksi pergeseran rerata yang sedang. Selain itu juga disimulasikan penggunaan peta kendali X VSSI dan peta kendali X VSS dengan ukuran sampel minimum n1=1 dan n1=2. Kata kunci: peta kendali X, variable sample size, variable sampling interval, ATS.