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Loan-to-Value Ratio and Housing Price Cycle: Empirical Evidence From Indonesia Lim, Charvin; Nugraheni, Siwi
Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan: Kajian Masalah Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Vol 18, No 2 (2017): JEP 2017
Publisher : Universitas Muhammdaiyah Surakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.23917/jep.v18i2.4846

Abstract

The subprime mortgage crisis in 2007-2009 which led to a global recession has highlighted the importance of regulating credit for housing market. The urgency arises not only to manage non-performing ratio, but further to manage price in the housing market which is a potent source of financial imbalance. Loan-to-value (LTV) regulation is imposed in order to dampen the housing price cycle, preventing the occurrence of bubble issue. This study tries to capture the influence of LTV implementation on housing price and assesses its effectiveness in the national scope. Error correction model is used to portray the short and long-term dynamics of housing cycle with regard to policy, macroeconomic, and financial variables. We concluded that LTV is an effective policy to dampen the price cycle in the long run, but not in the short run. In the short run, housing price is closely determined by the macroeconomic factors. Furthermore, we found that the implementation of LTV has made housing price to become more persistent, suggesting a change in the market expectation structure and the behavior of housing price cycle.
Loan-to-Value Ratio and Housing Price Cycle: Empirical Evidence From Indonesia Charvin Lim; Siwi Nugraheni
Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan: Kajian Masalah Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Vol 18, No 2 (2017): JEP 2017
Publisher : Muhammadiyah University Press

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.23917/jep.v18i2.4846

Abstract

The subprime mortgage crisis in 2007-2009 which led to a global recession has highlighted the importance of regulating credit for housing market. The urgency arises not only to manage non-performing ratio, but further to manage price in the housing market which is a potent source of financial imbalance. Loan-to-value (LTV) regulation is imposed in order to dampen the housing price cycle, preventing the occurrence of bubble issue. This study tries to capture the influence of LTV implementation on housing price and assesses its effectiveness in the national scope. Error correction model is used to portray the short and long-term dynamics of housing cycle with regard to policy, macroeconomic, and financial variables. We concluded that LTV is an effective policy to dampen the price cycle in the long run, but not in the short run. In the short run, housing price is closely determined by the macroeconomic factors. Furthermore, we found that the implementation of LTV has made housing price to become more persistent, suggesting a change in the market expectation structure and the behavior of housing price cycle.
DISENTANGLING INDONESIAN BANKING COMPETITION BASED ON BUKU CLASSIFICATION: IMPLICATIONS ON BANK SOUNDNESS Miryam B.L.S.K. Wijaya; Charvin Lim; Chandra Utama
Bina Ekonomi Vol. 22 No. 2 (2018): Bina Ekonomi: Majalah Ilmiah Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Katolik Parahyangan
Publisher : Center for Economic Studies Universitas Katolik Parahyangan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (7634.921 KB) | DOI: 10.26593/be.v22i2.3833.145-160

Abstract

ABSTRACTCompetition has long been debated as a vital factor determining banking performance and stability. The broad perspectives are divided into two streams, the ‘competition-fragility’ and ‘competition-stability’ view. Banking industry in Indonesia is experiencing consolidation waves as an effort to strengthen capital and enhance intermediation performance. The consolidation, however, inevitably alter the degree of competition. In this study, we propose a detailed assessment of competition effect through disentanglement amongst different bank clusters, particularly with respect to BUKU classification. The separation is done through Fixed Effect Vector Decomposition method, complemented by interaction variables. We found an indication that competition amongst Indonesian banks can be divided into two segments: the first containing BUKU1 and 2, while the latter BUKU3 and 4. Observing 57 banks using monthly data in 2006-2015, our study supports the competition-stability view, suggesting competition has positive influences on bank soundness. Adding more market power to the leader in each segment (BUKU2 and BUKU4, respectively) would have insignificant, if not malign, effect; the opposite for the challenger. Further, aside from competition, we found that interbank interaction promotes soundness.Keywords: competition; bank soundness; fixed effect vector decomposition
THE ROLE OF INTEREST RATES AND PROVINCIAL MONETARY AGGREGATE IN MAINTAINING INFLATION IN INDONESIA Chandra Utama; Miryam B.L. Wijaya; Charvin Lim
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 19 No 3 (2017)
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (1432.859 KB) | DOI: 10.21098/bemp.v19i3.666

Abstract

Monetary policy may employ interest rate or money supply to derive the assigned national inflatio target. In this manner, most studies investigate monetary policy effectiveness using national data. However, based n the idea that inflation is a regional phenomenon, the application of provincial data is more appropriate in explaining the relationship between monetary instrument and inflation. This study elaborates the impact of changes in provincial money supply, BI Rate (interest rates of central bank), and PUAB (money market interest rates) to regional inflation in Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve (HNKPC) framework. This study employs Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) techniques on panel data of 32 provinces from 2005-III to 2013-III. The data is classified into 4 groups, which are Java-Bali (W1), Sumatera (W2), Kalimantan-Sulawesi (W3), and Papua-Maluku-Nusa Tenggara (W4). The estimation result shows that each monetary instrument has diverging effectiveness in different regions. Provincial monetary aggregate is only effective in Sumatera, while BI Rate can manage inflation in Sumatera and Kalimantan-Sulawesi. PUAB, on the other hand, is significantly affecting inflation in almost all Indonesian regions, except Kalimantan- Sulawesi. We conclude that interest rate (BI rate and PUAB) is a more appropriate instrument, compared to provincial monetary aggregate, to control provincial inflation in Indonesia.