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All Journal JURNAL MATEMATIKA STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI E-Dimas: Jurnal Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat Jurnal Lebesgue : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika, Matematika dan Statistika Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Akademisi Journal of Mathematics, Computation and Statistics (JMATHCOS)
Abdullah Ahmad Dzikrullah
Universitas Islam Indonesia
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Humanities Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Engineering Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Mathematics Social Sciences Other

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Journal : Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya

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Pemodelan Harga Cabai Indonesia dengan Metode Seasonal ARIMAX Faris Nasirudin; Abdullah Ahmad dzikrullah
Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya Vol 7 No 1 (2023): Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya
Publisher : Program Studi Statistika FMIPA UNJ

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21009/JSA.07110

Abstract

Chili is one of the plants favored by the people of Indonesia because Indonesian cuisine is famous for its spicy taste and spices in every food dish. The rise and fall of chili prices in the market are caused by chili farmers whose production decision-making processes are allegedly not handled and supported by a good production and price forecast. Therefore, analysis is needed to see the forecasting of chili prices in Indonesia in the future. The method that researchers use in forecasting in this study is the SARIMA and SARIMAX methods using the variables of rainfall, inflation, and google trend. The analysis shows that the SARIMAX method is the best model for predicting chili prices with a MAPE value of 6.889% compared to a MAPE SARIMA value of 7.630%.
Co-Authors ACHMAD FAUZAN Faisal Arif Nurgesang Faris Nasirudin Novendri Isra Asriny Ranti Pramushinta Kurnia Zahrah Zeinawaqi