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All Journal Jurnal Lebesgue : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika, Matematika dan Statistika Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi
Muhammad Rismawan Ridha
Badan Pusat Statistik
Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Mathematics Social Sciences

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Covid-19 Di Indonesia: Pemodelan Dan Analisis Perbedaan Kondisi Perekonomian Sebelum Dan Sesudah Pandemi Muhammad Rismawan Ridha
Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Vol. 5 No. 3 (2021): Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi
Publisher : Program Studi Ekonomi Pembangunan Universitas Muhammadiyah Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22219/jie.v5i3.16520

Abstract

The Covid-19 pandemic has disrupted various human economic activities. Restrictions on people's movements with Large-Scale Social Restrictions (PSBB) have resulted in sluggish production activities and capital outflows which have resulted in a weakening of the rupiah exchange rate. In addition to impacting the exchange rate, the Covid-19 pandemic also had an impact on declining sales in the automotive sector. This study aims to model the increase in the number of positive cases of Covid-19 in Indonesia as well as to identify differences in economic conditions before and after the pandemic and the enactment of the PSBB. The data source used from the website of the Covid-19 Handling Task Force, Bank Indonesia, and the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Based on the results of the analysis, the ARIMA (2,1,1) ARCH (1) model is the right model to be used to predict positive case data for Covid-19. In addition, paired sample t-test analysis shows that there are significant differences in economic conditions in Indonesia before and after the Covid-19 pandemic and the implementation of large-scale social restrictions.
ERROR CORRECTION MODEL ANALYSIS OF THE DETERMINANT OF STABILITY OF FINANCIAL SYSTEM IN INDONESIA Muhammad Rismawan Ridha
Jurnal Lebesgue : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika, Matematika dan Statistika Vol. 1 No. 2 (2020): Jurnal Lebesgue : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika, Matematika dan Statistik
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Bina Bangsa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46306/lb.v1i2.19

Abstract

The current condition of economic openness is both an opportunity and a challenge that must be faced wisely by the government. Liberalization and economic integration will have an impact on financial market liberalization, which is highly vulnerable to create crisis in a banking system. This study aims to analyze the factors that influence the stability of the financial system in Indonesia by using the Error Correction Model (ECM). The variables used in this research is Capital Banking Credit sourced from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and Exchange Rate, Inflation, and Money Supply sourced from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) between 2010 and 2015. The results of the study show that; 1) ECT coefficient which has negative and significant value explains that the model is valid. 2) Inflation significantly affects the stability of the financial system in Indonesia in the long and short term
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