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PREDIKSI IHSG DENGAN MODEL GARCH DAN MODEL ARIMA Nachrowi, Nachrowi DjaIaI; Usman, Hardius
Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia Vol 7, No 2 (2007): Januari
Publisher : Department of Economics-FEUI

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This study search for proper models to forecast Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) and then compare their forecasts. The stock index from strong markers, like Dow Jonc Industrial Average (DJIA) and NJKKEI, as well as the index from regional markets, like SET, are expected to have strong influences on JCI. More specijìcally, it is expected that SET will be able to explain the realocalion of short term fund from Thailand to Indonesia through capital market due lo unfavour political situation in Thailand. Other than thai, exchange rate ¡s also expected to have effect on JCI movements. By using the daily darafrom January 3, 2005 to January 2, 2006, the study found that the proper models to be used toforecast JCI are GARCH (2,2) Model and ARIMA (1, 1,0) Model. The empirical results showed thai the forecast from ARIMA Model is superior to that of GARCH Model.

PREDIKSI IHSG DENGAN MODEL GARCH DAN MODEL ARIMA Nachrowi, Nachrowi DjaIaI; Usman, Hardius
Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia Vol 7 No 2 (2007): Januari
Publisher : Department of Economics-FEB UI

This study search for proper models to forecast Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) and then compare their forecasts. The stock index from strong markers, like Dow Jonc Industrial Average (DJIA) and NJKKEI, as well as the index from regional markets, like SET, are expected to have strong influences on JCI. More specijÃ¬cally, it is expected that SET will be able to explain the realocalion of short term fund from Thailand to Indonesia through capital market due lo unfavour political situation in Thailand. Other than thai, exchange rate Â¡s also expected to have effect on JCI movements. By using the daily darafrom January 3, 2005 to January 2, 2006, the study found that the proper models to be used toforecast JCI are GARCH (2,2) Model and ARIMA (1, 1,0) Model. The empirical results showed thai the forecast from ARIMA Model is superior to that of GARCH Model.

The Role of Religious Norms On Selecting The Islamic Bank Hardius Usman
Al-Iqtishad: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Syariah Vol 7, No 1: January 2015
Publisher : Faculty of Shariah and Law, UIN Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta

The aims of this study are to examine Muslim’s religious norms regarding to their belief on the law of the prohibition of bank interest, and to investigate the effect of religius norms on customers’ decision in using the Islamic banking services. This study employs natural experimental design with Analysis of Variance (ANOVA), and Pearson Chi-Square Test. The exploratory study also conducted to support the quantitative analysis. The results show that the religious norms among Muslims classified into two categories, i.e: traditional and contemporary group and the religious norm of the Muslim have significant affects on the decision in using the Islamic banks.DOI:10.15408/aiq.v7i1.1356

Analisis Pengangguran Usia Muda di Pulau Jawa Sebelum dan Saat Pandemi Covid-19 Meilani Thereza Br. Saragih; Hardius Usman
Jurnal Studi Pemuda Vol 10, No 2 (2021): Generasi Muda, Kerja dan Aspirasi Masa Depan
Publisher : Universitas Gadjah Mada

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22146/studipemudaugm.69484

The Covid-19 pandemic has harmed the employment sector. Many companies do layoffs of employees and limit the recruitment of new employees. As a result, there is an increase in unemployment, especially in the younger age group. This study aims to analyze the status of youth unemployment in Java in the period before and during the Covid-19 pandemic, as well as the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on youth unemployment in Java. The island of Java was chosen as the research locus because it is the area most affected by the Covid-19 pandemic in Indonesia. To achieve these objectives, we used the binary logistic regression analysis method with interaction effect. The results showed that gender, residency, education level, graduation time, marital status, work experience, and migration status affected the youth unemployment status in Java before and during the Covid-19 pandemic. In addition, the occurrence of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 affected youth unemployment in Java Island. There are different conditions of youth unemployment status in the period before and during the Covid-19 pandemic in terms of residency, education level, work experience, and migration status.

Analisis Pengangguran Usia Muda di Pulau Jawa Sebelum dan Saat Pandemi Covid-19 Meilani Thereza Br. Saragih; Hardius Usman
Jurnal Studi Pemuda Vol 10, No 2 (2021): Generasi Muda, Kerja dan Aspirasi Masa Depan
Publisher : Universitas Gadjah Mada

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22146/studipemudaugm.69484

The Covid-19 pandemic has harmed the employment sector. Many companies do layoffs of employees and limit the recruitment of new employees. As a result, there is an increase in unemployment, especially in the younger age group. This study aims to analyze the status of youth unemployment in Java in the period before and during the Covid-19 pandemic, as well as the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on youth unemployment in Java. The island of Java was chosen as the research locus because it is the area most affected by the Covid-19 pandemic in Indonesia. To achieve these objectives, we used the binary logistic regression analysis method with interaction effect. The results showed that gender, residency, education level, graduation time, marital status, work experience, and migration status affected the youth unemployment status in Java before and during the Covid-19 pandemic. In addition, the occurrence of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 affected youth unemployment in Java Island. There are different conditions of youth unemployment status in the period before and during the Covid-19 pandemic in terms of residency, education level, work experience, and migration status.

INDEKS KOMPOSIT PEKERJAAN TIDAK LAYAK (IPTL) DI INDONESIA Katamso Noto Santoso; Hardius Usman
Jurnal Kependudukan Indonesia Vol 15, No 1 (2020)
Publisher : Research Centre for Population, Indonesian Institute of Sciences

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14203/jki.v15i1.493

The open unemployment rate in Indonesia was 5.50 in August 2017. This figure was the lowest level in comparison to rates in previous years. The declining rate of unemployment over the past decade was in line with the increasing trend of risky work. This situation may indicate recent job opportunities are likely to be risky or categorized as non-decent works. To understand the conditions of non-decent work in Indonesia, a composite index measurement, which is currently not available, is needed. Thus, this study aims to develop such a composite index called Non-Decent Work Index (NDWI) to fill this gap. The method applied for the composite index formation is factor analysis. The findings indicate three factors of NDWI. It is also found that NDWI has a significant relationship with human development index and labor productivity. Therefore, Indonesia government needs to address the problem of inadequate employment conditions in this country. It is because decent work is the central aspect of efforts to reduce poverty

Intensi Generasi Milenial Dalam Memilih Pembiayaan Kredit Kepemilikan Rumah Pada Bank Syariah Di Indonesia Sheila Annisa; Nurdin Sobari; Hardius Usman
Jurnal Sosial dan Sains Vol. 1 No. 8 (2021): Jurnal Sosial dan Sains
Publisher : Green Publisher Indonesia

Memiliki rumah adalah idaman setiap orang, karena tempat tinggal merupakan kebutuhan dasar manusia. Pada kenyataannya, kemampuan finansial atau tingkat daya beli tidak sejalan dengan kenaikan harga perumahan yang cenderung naik setiap tahunnya. Peluang inilah yang dimanfaatkan oleh banyak lembaga keuangan termasuk perbankan syariah untuk menawarkan produk pembiayaan dalam hal kepemilikan rumah (KPR). Masyarakat usia produktif merupakan prospek bagi pertumbuhan bank syariah. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui faktor – faktor yang dapat memengaruhi intensi generasi milenial dalam memilih pembiayaan KPR di bank Syariah. Penelitian ini mengangkat Theory Reasoned Action dengan menggunakan populasi responden yang berasal dari nasabah bank generasi milenial di Indonesia. Variabel dependen dalam penelitian ini adalah atitude dan intensi generasi milenial, sedangkan variabel independen yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah Service Quality, Product Choice, Islamic Debt Policy, Pricing Policy, Institutional Compliance on Maqashid dan Social Influence. Data dikumpulkan menggunakan kuesioner dengan skala likert. Sedangkan untuk mengetahui karakteristik responden dan untuk memenuhi tujan penelitian, data dianalisis dengan menggunakan Partial Least Square (PLS) dengan bantuan aplikasi SMART PLS. Dari hasil penelitian didapatkan bahwa ada tiga variabel independen yang berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap terbentuknya Attitude seseorang, yaitu Product Choice, Institutional Compliance on Maqashid dan Social Influence. Selain itu, Attitude sendiri memengaruhi sebesar 73% terhadap intensi generasi milenial dalam memilih KPR di Bank Syariah

Impact of marketing communication mix towards image, brand awareness, and costumers decision to choose Islamic insurance Ade Fajar; Nurdin Sobari; Hardius Usman
Journal of Islamic Economics Lariba Vol. 4 No. 2 (2018)
Publisher : Department of Islamic Economics, Islamic University of Indonesia

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This study aims to determine the effect of marketing communication mix on brand image and brand awareness and its implication on the consumer decision to choose sharia insurance. This research is descriptive by using quantitative approach method and also supported by qualitative data. Data analysis method used in this research is SEM (Structural Equation Modeling). Respondents in this study are sharia life insurance customer in Jakarta, Bogor, Depok, Tanggerang, and Bekasi with a sample of 160 people. The result of the research shows that marketing communication mixes influence to brand image, marketing communication mix influence to brand awareness, marketing communication mix does not affect consumer decision to choose sharia insurance, brand image influence to consumer decision to accept sharia insurance, and brand awareness influence to consumer decision sharia insurance.

Pengaruh karakteristik ibu terhadap munculnya pekerja anak di Indonesia tahun 2018 Gratiana Imelda Nahak; Hardius Usman
Jurnal Kependudukan Indonesia Vol 17, No 2 (2022)
Publisher : Research Centre for Population, National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14203/jki.v17i2.643

The issue of child labor remains unresolved in Indonesia, hindering the achievement of one of the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which is to end child labor in all forms by 2025. This study aimed to examine the characteristics of child laborers aged 10-17 years old and the impact of maternal characteristics on child labor in Indonesia in 2018. The study analyzed data from the 2018 Indonesian Central Bureau of Statistics (Susenas KOR) survey using binary logistic regression. The results showed that most child laborers had mothers who were heads of households, had low levels of education, were disabled, had severe illnesses, were of productive age, had previously been married, and were recent migrants. It was concluded that maternal position in the household, maternal education level, maternal health status for severe illnesses, maternal age, and migration status significantly affected the prevalence of child labor in Indonesia in 2018. On the other hand, maternal physical condition, health status for mild illnesses, and marital status did not have an impact on child labor in Indonesia in 2018.

Determinan Status Horizontal Mismatch pada Pekerja Lulusan Pendidikan Tinggi di Indonesia Agil Priyovi Yonanda; Hardius Usman
Jurnal Ketenagakerjaan Vol 18 No 2 (2023)
Publisher : Pusat Pengembangan Kebijakan Ketenagakerjaan Kementerian Ketenagakerjaan Republik Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47198/jnaker.v18i2.239

Permasalahan dalam dunia ketenagakerjaan merupakan masalah yang cukup kompleks bagi setiap negara di dunia, tak terkecuali Indonesia. Penawaran dan permintaan tenaga kerja yang tidak seimbang menyebabkan banyak pekerja lulusan pendidikan tinggi memutuskan untuk mencari pekerjaan atau bekerja tanpa menghiraukan latar belakang bidang yang dipelajarinya ketika di pendidikan tinggi. Ketidakcocokan antara latar belakang bidang pendidikan yang dipelajari dengan pekerjaan yang dilakukannya disebut dengan horizontal mismatch. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui gambaran kondisi horizontal mismatch pada pekerja lulusan pendidikan tinggi di Indonesia dan karakteristik yang memengaruhinya berdasarkan data dari Survei Angkatan Kerja Nasional (Sakernas) Februari 2022. Metode analisis yang digunakan adalah analisis regresi logistik biner. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan pekerja lulusan pendidikan tinggi di Indonesia yang mengalami horizontal mismatch adalah sebanyak 33,50 persen dengan karakteristik yang memengaruhinya adalah umur, jenis kelamin, status perkawinan, tingkat pendidikan tinggi terakhir, rumpun bidang studi, keikutsertaan pelatihan, dan pengalaman bekerja sebelum lulus. Hasil tersebut dapat digunakan pemerintah dalam menentukan kebijakan mengenai penyerapan tenaga kerja lulusan pendidikan tinggi agar sesuai dengan bidang yang dipelajarinya dan mencegah dampak negatif dari horizontal mismatch.

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