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All Journal BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan
Bertha S Djahi
Department of Computer Sciences, Faculty of Sciences and Engineering, University of Nusa Cendana
Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Economics, Econometrics & Finance Energy Engineering Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Transportation

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DETERMINISTIC AND STOCHASTIC DENGUE EPIDEMIC MODEL: EXPLORING THE PROBABILITY OF EXTINCTION Meksianis Z. Ndii; Yudi Ari Adi; Bertha S Djahi
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 16 No 2 (2022): BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (524.68 KB) | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol16iss2pp583-596

Abstract

Dengue, a vector-borne disease, threatens the life of humans in tropical and subtropical regions. Hence, the dengue transmission dynamics need to be studied. An important aspect to be investigated is the probability of extinction. In this paper, deterministic and stochastic dengue epidemic models with two-age classes have been developed and analyzed, and the probability of extinction has been determined. For the stochastic approach, we use the Continuous-Time Markov Chain model. The results show that vaccination of adult individuals leads to a lower number of adult infected individuals. Furthermore, the results showed that a higher number of initial infections causes a low probability of dengue extinction. Furthermore, factors contributing to an increase in the infection-related parameters have to be minimized to increase the potential reduction of dengue cases.
Co-Authors Ndii, Meksianis Z Yudi Ari Adi, Yudi Ari