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All Journal Perwira Journal of Science and Engineering (PJSE)
AGUSTINI TRIPENA SURBAKTI
MATEMATIKA UNSOED
Computer Science & IT Electrical & Electronics Engineering

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FORECASTING OF WINTER’S EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING USING NON-LINEAR PROGRAMMING ALGORITHM AGUSTINI TRIPENA SURBAKTI
Perwira Journal of Science & Engineering Vol 2 No 2 (2022)
Publisher : Universitas Perwira Purbalingga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.54199/pjse.v2i2.139

Abstract

Forecasting of Winter’s exponential smoothing (WES) multiplicative can be used, when value of parameter level ( ), trend ( ), and seasonal ( ) exist with little error. Generally , , and are found by trial and error method. Non-linear programming algorithm can used for getting , , and . This thesis concerns in quadratic algorithm to get , , for WES. The values of , , found by quadratic algorithm using software SPSS are , , and . Respectively in the simulation (or applied) on the read data, the results of forecasting are 386,901,811,018.13 rupiahs, 393,361,659,799.84 rupiahs, 399,335,147,151.67 rupiahs, 404,859,870,667.20 rupiahs, and 409,970,521,748.95 rupiahs. Forecasting income of Tegal for 5 next year can be expressed optimum, caused by , , have little forecasting error with MAPE is 72.7360. Key Words : forecasting, WES multiplicative, non-linear programming
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