Article Per Year (5 Year)
p-Index From 2019 - 2024
0.408
P-Index
This Author published in this journals
All Journal Economics Development Analysis Journal
Muhammad Syam Kusufi, Muhammad Syam
Unknown Affiliation
Economics, Econometrics & Finance

Published : 2 Documents Claim Missing Document
Claim Missing Document
Check
Articles

Found 2 Documents
Search

 1 
PROJECTIONS OF REGIONAL MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS USING THE UNIVARIATE FORECASTING METHOD Kusufi, Muhammad Syam; Allo, Albertus Girik; Dwiputri, Inayati Nuraini
Economics Development Analysis Journal Vol 8 No 3 (2019): Economics Development Analysis Journal
Publisher : Economics Development Department, Universitas Negeri Semarang, Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/edaj.v8i3.30188

Abstract

The prediction of future macroeconomic conditions is needed by the government to carry out the planning and budgeting. This study predicts macro indicators in Hulu Sungai Utara Regency in the period 2017-2022. The method used is univariateforecasting, which includes the ARIMA model, exponential smoothing, and exponential smoothing with trend adjustment. The macroeconomic indicators used in this study are real Gross Domestic Regional Product (GDRP), economic growth, unemployment rate, and income distribution. The results of the analysis show that Brown's forecasting model is predicted that the real GDRP value tends to increase, forecasting results using a simple model on economic growth and the ARIMA (0.0,0) model on the unemployment rate, had predicted tends to be constant. And, the prediction of income distribution with the Holt model tends to increase. Keywords: macroeconomic, univariate, forecasting, ARIMA, exponential smoothing JEL Classification: E0, O1, C0
Projections of Regional Macroeconomic Conditions using the Univariate Forecasting Method Dwiputri, Inayati Nuraini; Kusufi, Muhammad Syam; Allo, Albertus Girik
Economics Development Analysis Journal Vol 8 No 3 (2019): Economics Development Analysis Journal
Publisher : Economics Development Department, Universitas Negeri Semarang, Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/edaj.v8i3.30188

Abstract

The prediction of future macroeconomic conditions is needed by the government to carry out the planning and budgeting. This study predicts macro indicators in Hulu Sungai Utara Regency in the period 2017-2022. The method used is univariateforecasting, which includes the ARIMA model, exponential smoothing, and exponential smoothing with trend adjustment. The macroeconomic indicators used in this study are real Gross Domestic Regional Product (GDRP), economic growth, unemployment rate, and income distribution. The results of the analysis show that Brown's forecasting model is predicted that the real GDRP value tends to increase, forecasting results using a simple model on economic growth and the ARIMA (0.0,0) model on the unemployment rate, had predicted tends to be constant. And, the prediction of income distribution with the Holt model tends to increase. Keywords: macroeconomic, univariate, forecasting, ARIMA, exponential smoothing JEL Classification: E0, O1, C0
Co-Authors Albertus Girik Allo Inayati Nuraini Dwiputri