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All Journal Journal of Dinda : Data Science, Information Technology, and Data Analytics
Tangguh Widodo
Institut Teknologi Telkom Purwokerto
Computer Science & IT

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Prediction of Covid-19 Cases in Central Java using the Autoregressive (AR) Method Tangguh Widodo; Siti Maghfiroh; Surya Haganta Brema Ginting; Alif Aryaputra; Sudianto Sudianto
Indonesian Journal of Data Science, IoT, Machine Learning and Informatics Vol 3 No 1 (2023): February
Publisher : Research Group of Data Engineering, Faculty of Informatics

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20895/dinda.v3i1.740

Abstract

Since the beginning of the Covid-19 case in Indonesia in March 2020, more than 6 million confirmed cases had been confirmed. The rapid development of this case can be accessed through the covid19.go.id page. In Central Java province, confirmed cases as of July 6, 2022, reached 628,393 people, with the number of recovered patients reaching 594,783 people and the number of patients dying as many as 33,215 people. With this data, a prediction is needed to help the government anticipate an increase in Covid-19 cases in Central Java Province. This study aims to create a forecasting model using the Autoregressive (AR) method by optimizing the function parameters. Then Mean Squared Error (MSE) to analyze the results of forecasting data errors. The results are the best parameter functions on AR (30) with the smallest MSE. Furthermore, predictions are made from July 1 to August 30, 2022, showing an increase in cases
Co-Authors Alif Aryaputra Siti Maghfiroh Sudianto Surya Haganta Brema Ginting