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All Journal CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi
Novi Nur Aini, Novi Nur
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Mathematics

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Spatio Temporal Modelling for Government Policy the COVID-19 Pandemic in East Java Iriany, Atiek; Aini, Novi Nur; Sulistyono, Agus Dwi
CAUCHY Vol 6, No 4 (2021): CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Maulana Malik Ibrahim State Islamic University of Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18860/ca.v6i4.10639

Abstract

COVID-19 has cursorily spread globally. Just in four months, its status altered into a pandemic. In Indonesia, the virus epicenter is identified in Java. The first positive case was identified in West Java and later spread in all Java. The Large-scale Social Restrictions are seemingly inefficient as the SARS-CoV-2 transmission remains. As such, the government is struggling to find anticipatory policies and steps best to mitigate the transmission. In this particular article, we used a Spatio-temporal model method for the total COVID-19 cases in Java and forecasted the total cases for the next 14 days, allowing the stakeholders to make more effective policies. The data we were using were the daily data of the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases taken from www.covid19.go.id. Data modelling was conducted using a generalized spatio-temporal autoregressive model. The model acquired to model the COVID-19 cases in Java was the GSTAR(1)(1,0,0) model.
Co-Authors Agus Dwi Sulistyono, Agus Dwi Atiek Iriany