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Assessment of Climate Change induced Household Vulnerability in Nepal: Application of Index Method Raghu Bir Bista
ARRUS Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities Vol. 3 No. 1 (2023)
Publisher : Lembaga Penelitian dan Pengembangan Teknologi dan Rekayasa, Yayasan Ahmar Cendekia Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35877/soshum1151

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between the magnitude of climate variability and household vulnerability in the catchment areas of Sot Khola sub-water basin in the western mountainous Surkhet, Nepal by constructing a theoretical climate vulnerability index based on household-level data collected from 642 Household covering adaptive, sensitive, and exposure. Its result is the climate vulnerability index (CVI) of households living in Sot Khola sub water basin’s catchment areas, which provides sufficient evidence of heterogeneity in climate variability and vulnerability of households across location and altitude of the catchment areas. In all clusters, all households are vulnerable at a different level. Households have the heterogeneous adaptive capacity in which about 40 percent of households have less adaptive capacity indicating potentially vulnerable households, although 60 percent of households have higher adaptive capacity. The majority of households (52.7%) are sensitive to Climate-induced disasters: landslides and floods due to their socio-economic status and food insufficiency. But about 47.4 percent of households are less sensitive. Since households’ locations are far from flood and landslides patches, about 4.4 percent of households are higher exposure but 95.6 percent of households are in less exposure. The composite index of climate vulnerability index shows 50 percent moderate and higher vulnerable household from climate-induced disaster: landslide and flood. It was supplemented by additional 17.0 percent moderately vulnerable households. Thus, in total, about 67 percent of household is vulnerable at a different level from moderate to extremely higher vulnerable. The remaining (33 percent) is least vulnerable.
Forecasting Climate Variability in Nepal Raghu Bir Bista
SAINSMAT: Journal of Applied Sciences, Mathematics, and Its Education Vol. 12 No. 1 (2023)
Publisher : PT Mattawang Mediatama Solution

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35877/sainsmat1150

Abstract

Climate variability is noted a critical issue in Nepal. This paper investigates empirically and analytically whether climate variability exists or not in different altitudes, whether its direction moves and what will be its future direction. In this study, we used a time series forecasting model based on the secondary data of hydrology and metrology collected from the Department of Hydrology and Metrology, the Government of Nepal. As a result, this paper found climate variability in the different parts of Nepal where variations of climatic variables (temperature and rainfall precipitation) are found all months of the year. In the estimation, on average temperature rising per annum is by 20 C from 1975 to 2012. However, declining rainfall per annum was noticed. Additionally, the estimated forecasting of temperature variation over the next 40 years would be 60c over. In the case of rainfall forecast, it would be constant and results from drought at high altitude and flood at low altitude. Therefore, climate variability may be a big threat in the next 40 years across the country, of Nepal. The result may be valuable input to the policymakers and farmers for economics as usual.