Article Per Year (5 Year)
p-Index From 2019 - 2024
0.23
P-Index
This Author published in this journals
All Journal BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan
Ratna Nur Mustika Sanusi
Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, IPB University, Indonesia
Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Economics, Econometrics & Finance Energy Engineering Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Transportation

Published : 1 Documents Claim Missing Document
Claim Missing Document
Check
Articles

Found 1 Documents
Search

 1 
SIMULATION OF THE SARIMA MODEL WITH THREE-WAY ANOVA AND ITS APPLICATION IN FORECASTING LARGE CHILLIES PRICES IN FIVE PROVINCES ON JAVA ISLAND Ratna Nur Mustika Sanusi; Budi Susetyo; Utami Dyah Syafitri
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 17 No 1 (2023): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (337.62 KB) | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol17iss1pp0253-0262

Abstract

Commodities that become potential in the Horticulture Sub-sector are large chilies, so supply and prices must be controlled. One of the efforts that can be made is to predict the price of large chili in the future. However, forecasting is sometimes constrained by several things, such as small sample sizes and outliers. The effect of several factors on the parameter estimation bias can be determined by experimental design by simulating the data obtained from the generation results with several scenarios. The results of the analysis show that all factors have a significant effect on the magnitude of the parameter bias, so that all factors can affect forecasting results. When applying forecasting methods to actual data, paying attention to these three factors is necessary. The application of actual data using the SARIMA method gives good results. It can be seen from the RMSE and MAPE values ​​, which tend to be small. Based on the forecast results for the following 12 periods, it is estimated that the price of big chili in 2022 in five provinces will still fluctuate. The high price of chili in five provinces is predicted to reach its highest in the first three months of 2022. The highest price is predicted to occur in DIY Province in February, which is Rp. 74.230.00/kg. However, from the middle to the end of the year, prices will tend to fall and stabilize. The price will be the lowest in Middle Java Province in December, which is Rp. 20,689.00/Kg.
Co-Authors Budi Susetyo Utami Dyah Syafitri