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This Author published in this journals
All Journal Journal of Economics and Business UBS Co-Value : Jurnal Ekonomi, Koperasi & Kewirausahaan
Dzikri Firmansyah Hakam
Institut Teknologi Bandung
Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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Analyzing the Influence of the Coal Export Ban Policy on the Financial Performance of PTBA Indonesia: A Case Study of Indonesia’s Coal Company Riza Syafitri; Dzikri Firmansyah Hakam
Co-Value Jurnal Ekonomi Koperasi dan kewirausahaan Vol. 14 No. 4 (2023): Co-Value : Jurnal Ekonomi, Koperasi, & Kewirausahaan
Publisher : Program Studi Manajemen Institut Manajemen Koperasi Indonesia Bandung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.36418/covalue.v14i4.3717

Abstract

The demand for coal in Indonesia and globally has risen in response to global population growth. As the largest exporter of thermal coal globally, they exported around 434 Mts in 2021, with primary consumers including India, China, Japan, and South Korea. Indonesian coal mining companies are confronting a coal export prohibition due to insufficient domestic coal supply for PLN amidst the European energy crisis and the Ukraine-Russia crisis. The coal export ban may negatively impact the sales of coal mining companies, such as PTBA, and limit their potential to expand into Italy and Poland in 2022. This study aims to comprehensively analyze PTBA's fair value using internal and external analysis to assess PTBA's financial condition. PTBA shares were valued at US $0.226 or Rp 3,293 using the DCF method in early 2022. A Monte Carlo Simulation will be performed to assess the value at risk and measure potential investment losses. A Monte Carlo Simulation was conducted at a 95% certainty level to determine the valuation range of shares, which was between -US $0.04 and US $0.45. PTBA's current stock is undervalued based on DCF methods, indicating that investors who purchase at US $0.223 or Rp 3,923 may benefit.
The Impact of Russian-Ukraine Conflict on Profitability and Valuation of Indonesian Coal Stocks Erman Sumirat; Dzikri Firmansyah Hakam; Irfan Sihab Budin F
Journal of Economics and Business UBS Vol. 12 No. 6 (2023): Journal of Economics and Business UBS
Publisher : UniSadhuGuna Business School

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.52644/joeb.v2i6.853

Abstract

This research investigates the impact of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine on the profitability and valuation of publicly listed Indonesian coal companies. Leveraging panel regression, the study offers empirically grounded perspectives on how an acute geopolitical conflict disrupted global energy trade flows to influence key financial metrics of a major exported commodity. Specifically, the analysis focuses on five leading Indonesian coal miners over 2019-2022. Profitability dynamics are examined through gross profit margins while valuations reliance on price-to-earnings ratios. Control variables capture coal prices, a conflict indicator, inflation, interest rates, and exchange rate fluctuations. Results reveal the global coal price spike had a statistically significant positive impact on profit margins, affirming the turmoil's commodity super-cycle upside. However, valuations diverged from earnings trends, suggesting more complex reassessments of long-term prospects. The conflict itself directly affected profitability but not valuations. This research contributes timely empirical insights on an understudied intersection of geopolitics, commodity markets, and emerging market equities. Evidence-based quantification of financial linkages and risk transmission inform both theory and practice. Strategic decision makers obtain granular clarity regarding exposures and opportunities during energy market turmoil.
Co-Authors Erman Sumirat Irfan Sihab Budin F Riza Syafitri