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Caitlyn Rizky Miranda
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Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences

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ANALISA PENGENDALIAN PERSEDIAAN PRODUK SEPATU MENGGUNAKAN METODE FORCASTING, EOQ dan MONTE CARLO PADA PT KIRANA ABADI SENTOSA Caitlyn Rizky Miranda; Edwin Julian Kaesang; Mia Seby; Adi Teguh Suprapto
Jurnal Manajemen Vol 9 No 1 (2019): November
Publisher : Lembaga Penelitian dan Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat Institut Bisnis dan Informatika Kwik Kian Gie

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46806/jm.v9i1.608

Abstract

This study aims to determine which method is appropriate for predicting shoe demand at PT Kirana Abadi Sentosa for the January-December 2018 period based on the smallest MAD and MSE values and to know the application of Monte Carlo simulations to calculate inventory at PT Kirana Abadi Sentosa. In this research the Time Series forecasting method (Naive Method, Moving Averages, Exponential Smoothing and Trend Projection) will be compared, then Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) and Mean Square Error (MSE) will be used. After selecting the smallest MAD and MSE and determine the forecast results then entered into the EOQ calculation and compared using Monte Carlo simulations. The research methodology used is quantitative methods. From the analysis of this research Na¯ve Method is the method that has the smallest value with a MAD value of 9.277 and MSE 211.104. The results of Time Series forecasting and EOQ calculations and the results of the Monte Carlo simulation obtained calculations that are suitable for the company PT Kirana Abadi Sentosa are Monte Carlo simulations because it can produce a total inventory cost much smaller at Rp40,791,144,304. Keywords: Forecasting, Quantitative, Inventory, EOQ, Monte Carlo Simulation
Co-Authors Adi Teguh Suprapto Edwin Julian Kaesang Mia Seby