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Saiful Bahri
Universitas Negeri Makassar
Mathematics

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Journal : Journal of Mathematics, Computation and Statistics (JMATHCOS)

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Model Rantai Markov dan Model ARIMA serta Kombinasinya dalam Memprediksi Curah Hujan di Kota Makassar Ahmad Zaki; Wahidah Sanusi; Saiful Bahri
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 1 No. 01 (2018): Volume 01 Nomor 01 (April 2018)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

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Abstract

Rainfall is a time series data that is continuous, but can also be formulated as a discrete variable that is by classifying one day as rainy and not rainy. Rainfall recorded by rain posts can be used to predict rainfall in the future through seasonal ARIMA time series modeling, Markov Chain or with a mixture of both. The Markov process is a stochastic system in which future events depend on the events of the previous moment. The time series is a series of data arranged in time sequence. The purpose of this study is to model and predict rainfall with a mixture of Markov Chains and time series models. The data used in this study is the monthly rainfall of Makassar city in 2007 to 2017. A mixture of time series models is more suitable to be used to predict monthly rainfall compared to modeling time series. This can be seen from the MSE value.
Co-Authors Ahmad Zaki Wahidah Sanusi