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All Journal SAINSMAT SAINSMAT: Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam
Yassar, La Ode Salman
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Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemistry Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Education Physics

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Journal : SAINSMAT: Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam

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Modeling Factors Influencing Covid-19 Cases in South Sulawesi Using Bayesian Conditional Autoregressive Localised Yassar, La Ode Salman; Shanty, Meyrna Vidya; Mahadtir, Muhamad; Aswi, Aswi; Annas, Suwardi
Sainsmat : Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Vol 13, No 1 (2024): Maret
Publisher : Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Universitas Negeri Makassar

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/sainsmat131606362024

Abstract

South Sulawesi Province is listed as the province with the highest number of Covid-19 cases in the Sulawes island. Research on Covid-19 modeling has been carried out by many researchers, but until now, there has been no research using the Bayesian spatial Conditional Autoregressive Localized model which involves a combination of factors such as distance to the provincial capital, population density, and the number of elderly people in each district in South Sulawesi Province. The aim of this research is to get the best Bayesian Conditional Autoregressive Localized model. The best model is based on four criteria, namely: Deviance Information Criteria, Watanabe Akaike Information Criteria, residuals from Modified Moran's I, and the number of areas included in a group. It was found that model with G=3 by including population density covariates was the best model. A significant factor influencing the increase in Covid-19 cases is the population density factor which has a positive effect. This shows that the more densely populated an area is, the greater the chance of being infected with Covid-19. Makassar has the highest relative risk value for Covid-19 followed by Toraja district and Pare-Pare City. Meanwhile, Bone district has the lowest relative risk value for Covid-19, followed by Wajo district and Enrekang district.
Co-Authors Aswi, Aswi Mahadtir, Muhamad Shanty, Meyrna Vidya Suwardi Annas