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All Journal International Journal of Economic, Finance and Business Statistics (IJEFBS)
Shuaibu, Mukhtar
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Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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Asymmetric Effect of External Debt on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): Empirical Study from Nigeria Shuaibu, Mukhtar; Abdulhamid, Jabiru
International Journal of Economic, Finance and Business Statistics Vol. 1 No. 2 (2023): Desember 2023
Publisher : MultiTech Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59890/ijefbs.v1i2.1134

Abstract

The paper examines the effect of external debt on FDI inflow in Nigeria between 1983 and 2021. Stationarity tests such Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF), Phillips Perron (PP) as well as Guris (GUR) non-linearity unit root tests were employed to check the properties of the series. Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model was adapted to explore the relationship between the variables after confirming the mixed order of integration across the three testes. The Bound Test reveals the existence of a long-run relationship between the variables. According to the NARDL results; in the short-run a unit positive change in external debt would lead to decrease in FDI inflow by (1.165) while a unit negative change in external would lead to increase in FDI inflow by (1.360) and both are significance at 5% level of significance  in short-run. The long-run results indicates that, the positive and negative change in external debt exhibit positive effect on net FDI inflow but only negative change is statistically significance at 5% level of significance. It is recommended that government should take steps in redemption of existing external debt and refrain from taking on any unnecessary new debt as these actions will not help the country's short run net FDI inflow and consequently, its overall economic growth.
Testing the Asymmetric Relationship between Interest Rate and Inflation in Nigeria: An Empirical Analysis (NARDL) Approach Shuaibu, Mukhtar; Ibrahim Musa; Abdulhamid, Jabir; Rabi’u, Sanusi
International Journal of Economic, Finance and Business Statistics Vol. 2 No. 1 (2024): February 2024
Publisher : MultiTech Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59890/ijefbs.v2i1.1462

Abstract

The asymmetric relationship between interest rates and inflation in Nigeria is a complex issue that requires further investigation. The Nonlinear Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Model (NARDL) was used to examine this relationship using annual time series data The asymmetric relationship between interest rates and inflation in Nigeria is a complex issue that requires further investigation. The Nonlinear Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Model (NARDL) was used to examine this relationship using annual time series data from 1986 to 2023. The NARDL Bound test revealed cointegration among variables, with long-run coefficients indicating that a 1% increase in inflation leads to a -0.568 decrease in interest rates and a -0.483 increase in interest rates. The study also found that the short-run asymmetric effect of inflation to inflation decreases by (-.898) percent in the current period, while maintaining a decrease rate in subsequent periods. The ECM(-1) term satisfies the condition of its negative and statistical property of convergence from a long-run disequibrium. The study recommends tight monetary measures to avert inflationary tendencies during monetary crises and expansionary measures during recessions to curtail uncertainties. Governments should use inflation rates to service outstanding debts and address idle cash balances, fostering efficiency in the financial system through key indicators of interest rate and inflation. from 1986 to 2023. The NARDL Bound test revealed cointegration among variables, with long-run coefficients indicating that a 1% increase in inflation leads to a -0.568 decrease in interest rates and a -0.483 increase in interest rates. The study also found that the short-run asymmetric effect of inflation to inflation decreases by (-.898) percent in the current period, while maintaining a decrease rate in subsequent periods. The ECM(-1) term satisfies the condition of its negative and statistical property of convergence from a long-run disequibrium. The study recommends tight monetary measures to avert inflationary tendencies during monetary crises and expansionary measures during recessions to curtail uncertainties. Governments should use inflation rates to service outstanding debts and address idle cash balances, fostering efficiency in the financial system through key indicators of interest rate and inflation.
Co-Authors Abdulhamid, Jabir Abdulhamid, Jabiru Ibrahim Musa Rabi’u, Sanusi