Economic Journal of Emerging Markets
Volume 1 Issue 1, 2009

Forcasting Portofolio Value-At-Risk for International Stocks, Bonds, and Foreign Exchange Emerging Market Evidence

Abdul Hakim (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
23 Sep 2011

Abstract

This paper uncovers the nature of conditional correlations between and volatility spilloversacross bond, stock and foreign exchange in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand.Using various multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity(GARCH) models, it finds the evidence of highly persistence in the conditional variance,volatility spillovers across assets, and time-varying conditional correlations in all markets. Italso provides Value-at-Risk forecast based on the estimated models. Assuming normal distribution,the tests suggest that incorporating volatility spillovers and time-varying conditionalcorrelations does not help in providing Value-at-Risk forecasts. Assuming t distribution, thetests suggest that incorporating volatility spillovers provides better VaR forecasts.Keywords: conditional correlations, volatility spillovers, VaR forecast

Copyrights © 2009






Journal Info

Abbrev

JEP

Publisher

Subject

Economics, Econometrics & Finance

Description

The Economic Journal of Emerging Markets (EJEM) is a peer-reviewed journal which provides a forum for scientific works pertaining to emerging market economies. Published every April and October, this journal welcomes original research papers on all aspects of economic development issues. The journal ...