International Journal of Research in Community Services
Vol 2, No 1 (2021)

Early Information on Active Cases in Zero Rejection Efforts for COVID-19 Patients in West Java Province 2021 Using the Feedforwards Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network

Yuyun Hidayat (Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Padjadjaran, Jatinangor, West Java, Indonesia)
Subiyanto Subiyanto (Department of Marine Science, Faculty of Fishery and Marine Science, Universitas Padjadjaran)
Titi Purwandari (Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Padjadjaran, Jatinangor, West Java, Indonesia)
Dhika Surya Pangestu (Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Padjadjaran, Jatinangor, West Java, Indonesia)
Sukono Sukono (Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Padjadjaran, Jatinangor, West Java, Indonesia)



Article Info

Publish Date
26 Nov 2021

Abstract

West Java noted, as of August 14, 2021, 653,741 people were confirmed positive for COVID-19. On the same date, the number of active COVID-19 cases in West Java was 65,000. There is a significant increase in active cases of COVID-19 in 2021 in West Java. In the period 5 June – 17 July 2021, there was an increase in the number of active cases by 95,532. In that period, active cases increased by 484%, and the Bed Occupancy Ratio (BOR) in West Java had jumped in June 2021 with the highest number of 91.6%, this figure far exceeded the WHO recommendation of 60% before finally continuing to decline and finally in August was at 30.69%. This has an impact on the incidence of patient rejection at the COVID-19 referral hospital. Active cases talk about COVID-19 patients who need medical treatment and new cases talk about the rate of spread of COVID-19 in West Java, so these two things are very strategic to study. In this study, active cases and new case were predicted using Multilayer Perceptron (MLP). The data used in this study were sourced from the COVID-19 Task Force. The data is the number of positive cases, recovered and died of COVID-19 sufferers in 34 provinces in Indonesia in the period 2 March 2020 - 14 August 2021. The results of the study found, from the results of the evaluation using data testing the number of active cases in the last 19 weeks, namely April 10 – August 14, 2021, MLP is accurate in predicting the number of active cases for the first coming week 17 times, and the next two weeks for the second week 12 times with an absolute percentage error (APE) < 20%. As for weekly new cases, MLP has been accurate 10 times for the next one week and 9 times for the next two weeks. It is hoped that the results of this study can be useful for the government as a reference in conditioning the hospital bed capacity to deal with active cases of COVID-19 in West Java in the next two weeks so that no COVID-19 patients are rejected by the hospital because the hospital is full.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

ijrcs

Publisher

Subject

Economics, Econometrics & Finance Energy Engineering Social Sciences Other

Description

Community Services is an implementation activity of science, technology and cultural arts directly to the community institutionally through scientific methodology as a translation of the Tri Dharma of Higher Education,as well as the responsibility of scientists in efforts to develop community ...