The Jurnal Arsip Rekayasa Sipil dan Perencanaan (Journal of Archive in Civil Engineering and Planning)
Vol 4, No 4 (2021): Jurnal Arsip Rekayasa Sipil dan Perencanaan

MODEL ESTIMASI BANGKITAN PERGERAKAN MODA LAUT MENGGUNAKAN METODE REGRESI LINIER DAN RANDOM FOREST

Fadhlullah Apriandy (Department of Civil Engineering, Universitas Syiah Kuala, Darusalam, Banda Aceh, Indonesia)
Sugiarto Sugiarto (Jurusan Teknik Sipil, Universitas Syiah Kuala, Banda Aceh)
Sofyan M Saleh (Jurusan Teknik Sipil, Universitas Syiah Kuala, Banda Aceh)
Lulusi Lulusi (Jurusan Teknik Sipil, Universitas Syiah Kuala, Banda Aceh)



Article Info

Publish Date
30 Dec 2021

Abstract

The need for people and goods movement across regions have been increasing susbtantially over the years. Sea transportations plays pivotal role in allowing this trans-national movement.The ferry line connecting Langsa, Indonesia and Penang, Malaysia had been established to help people and good across borders, albeit no longer operating. This study aims to estimate trip generation and attraction between these ports and their surrounding areas, and suggest whether this ferry line should reoperate. In doing so, random forest was utilised alongside linear regression model. Random forest has been increasingly popular among researchers in making estimates or preditions, whether calculating numerical or categorical data. To develop both models, historical trip and socio-economics data were employed. It was found that Gross Domestic Regional Product (GDRP) and population significantly affect trip generation and attraction. Both variables shows positive effect on trip generation and attraction: an increase in either should increase trip generation and attraction. Similar to linear regression model, random forest model show an excellent predictive capability. With a sophisticated model incorporating more variables, it is expected that random forest should well exceed linear regression predicitve capability. As population and GDRP are expected to continue to grow, it is suggested that stakeholders should reoperate this Langsa-Penang ferry line.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

JARSP

Publisher

Subject

Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Transportation

Description

The Jurnal Arsip Rekayasa Sipil dan Perencanaan (Journal of Archive in Civil Engineering and Planning) is a peer-reviewed journal published four times a year (March, June, September, and December) that publishes reviewed articles which contribute new results in all areas of the Civil Engineering and ...