BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan
Vol 16 No 1 (2022): BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan

COMPARISON OF SARIMA, SVR, AND GA-SVR METHODS FOR FORECASTING THE NUMBER OF RAINY DAYS IN BENGKULU CITY

Novi Puspita (Statistics and Data Science Study Program, FMIPA, IPB University)
Farit Mochamad Afendi (Statistics and Data Science Study Program, FMIPA, IPB University)
Bagus Sartono (Statistics and Data Science Study Program, FMIPA, IPB University)



Article Info

Publish Date
21 Mar 2022

Abstract

The number of rainy days is a calculation of the rainy days that occur in one month. In recent years, there has been a decrease in rainy days in some parts of Indonesia. One of the areas at risk of quite a high decreasing number of rainy days is the Bengkulu City area. The decrease in the number of rainy days is one of the impacts caused by climate change. The community will feel the impact of climate change-related to the season, especially those working in the agricultural sector. In compiling the planting calendar, it is necessary to consider the seasons to estimate water availability. This study aimed to forecast the data on the number of rainy days in Bengkulu City in the period January 2000 to December 2020 using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA), Support Vector Regression (SVR), and Genetic Algorithm Support Vector Regression (GA-SVR) methods. The criteria for selecting the best model used was Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD). The MAD value in the SARIMA method was 4,16, 5,07 in the SVR model, and 3,67 in the GA-SVR model. Based on these results, it can be concluded that the GA-SVR model is the best model for forecasting the number of rainy days in Bengkulu City.

Copyrights © 2022






Journal Info

Abbrev

barekeng

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Economics, Econometrics & Finance Energy Engineering Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Transportation

Description

BAREKENG: Jurnal ilmu Matematika dan Terapan is one of the scientific publication media, which publish the article related to the result of research or study in the field of Pure Mathematics and Applied Mathematics. Focus and scope of BAREKENG: Jurnal ilmu Matematika dan Terapan, as follows: - Pure ...