Garuda - Garba Rujukan Digital

Media Statistika

Vol 15, No 1 (2022): Media Statistika

Gumgum Darmawan (Department of Mathematics, Universitas Gadjah Mada Department of Statistics, Universitas Padjajaran)
Dedi Rosadi (Department of Mathematics, Universitas Gadjah Mada)
Budi Nurani Ruchjana (Department of Mathematics, Universitas Padjajaran)
Resa Septiani Pontoh (Department of Statistics, Universitas Padjajaran)
Asrirawan Asrirawan (Universitas Sulawesi Barat)
Wirawan Setialaksana (Universitas Negeri Makassar)

Publish Date
27 Jul 2022

In this study, Covid-19 modeling in Indonesia is carried out using a time series model. The time series model used is the time series model for discrete data. These models consist of Feedforward Neural Network (FFNN), Error, Trend, and Seasonal (ETS), Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA), Fuzzy Time Series (FTS), Generalized Autoregression Moving Average (GARMA), and Bayesian Time Series. Based on the results of forecast accuracy calculation using MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) as model evaluation for confirmed data, the most accurate case models is the bayesian model of 0.04%, while all recovered cases yield MAPE 0.05%, except for FTS = 0.06%. For data for death cases SSA and Bayesian Models, the best with MAPE is 0.07%.

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