U Karst
Vol 6, No 2 (2022): NOVEMBER

Forecasting and Trend Analysis Bus Transportation During COVID-19 in Bali Land Using Time Series Method

Budi Mardikawati (Road Transportation Study Program, Bali Land Transportation Polytechnic)
Ida Ayu Masyumi (Road Transportation Study Program, Bali Land Transportation Polytechnic)
Asep Eka Nugraha (Automative Technology Study Program, Bali Land Transportation Polytechnic)



Article Info

Publish Date
30 Nov 2022

Abstract

Transportation functions as a link between tourist destinations. Since the COVID-19 pandemic hit, the transportation industry has experienced direct impacts. One is a decrease in transportation users due to increased travel costs. This has a direct impact on reducing public interest in visiting. This research aims to find out changes in services for inter-provincial buses in Bali during and after the pandemic. The data used is departure data: the number of autobus suppliers; the number of departing destinations; the number of trips; and the average number of passengers from January 2018 to April 2022. From this data, time series analysis and forecasting were carried out using the Minitab software. The findings of a time series study regarding the number of trips, the number of bus suppliers, and the average number of passengers have decreased over time. Still, the number of departure destinations from the island of Bali has increased. Based on the forecasting results, it is known that the number of bus suppliers and the number of departure destinations has increased. However, it does not match the data for January 2018. This shows that the connectivity of Bali Island and the surrounding islands has increased after the COVID-19 pandemic subsided. It is hoped that it can be used as material for formulating public transportation strategies and policies, especially inter-provincial bus services.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

ukarst

Publisher

Subject

Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture

Description

U KaRsT is a journal of the civil engineering research the University of Kadiri published twice a year in April and November. First published in April 2017. U KaRsT already has both ISSN printed and online, for ISSN (Print) is 2579-4620, and ISSN (Online) is ...