Jurnal Ekonomi
Vol. 12 No. 01 (2023): Jurnal Ekonomi, 2023 Periode Januari - Maret

PREDICTION OF EXCHANGE RATE INTEGRATION IN FOUR EMERGING MARKET COUNTRIES

Ade Novalina (Universitas Pembangunan Panca Budi)
Rusiadi Rusiadi (Universitas Pembangunan Panca Budi)
Bhaktiar Efendi (Universitas Pembangunan Panca Budi)
Dilla Fadila Rusmawadi (Universitas Pembangunan Panca Budi)
Nasib Nasib (Universitas Mahkota Tricom Unggul)



Article Info

Publish Date
23 Jan 2023

Abstract

This study analyzes monetary policy variables on exchange rate stability. Where is the purpose of this study to see the contribution of variable inflation, the amount of money in circulation, interest rates, and foreign exchange reserves in dealing with exchange rates? The problem that has existed so far is the inaccuracy of the policies used to maintain exchange rate stability. However, this study predicts being able to use monetary policy in dealing with exchange rate problems. Four countries will be studied, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines. Analysis to see leading indicators per country using the ARDL Panel method. The results of interest rates and the money supply can become the main leading indicators (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines), but their positions are unstable in the short run and long run. The main leading indicator of the effectiveness of monetary policy which can become the leading indicator for Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines in maintaining exchange rate stability is the interest rate variable seen from a short-run and long-run stability. Where the interest rate variable in the short term and long term is significant for the stability of the exchange rate.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

Ekonomi

Publisher

Subject

Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences

Description

Journal Ekonomi is a peer-reviewed journal that publishes scientific articles that are the results of original scientific research (top priority) and new scientific review articles (not priority) from various academics and researchers that have not been published elsewhere, including: 1. Accountancy ...