Journal of Information Systems and Informatics
Vol 5 No 1 (2023): Journal of Information Systems and Informatics

Sales Prediction on the Diamond Cell Counter Using Autoregresive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Method

Kris Rahayu (Universitas Mercu Buana Yogyakarta)
Putri Taqwa Prasetyaningrum (Universitas Mercu Buana Yogyakarta)



Article Info

Publish Date
07 Mar 2023

Abstract

Diamond Cell is a specialized retailer that offers a diverse range of smartphone accessories, electronic credits, and internet vouchers from different providers, each with varying active periods. However, the uncertainty surrounding internet voucher sales transactions often leaves counter owners hesitant to increase their stock due to the short active period of the vouchers. This leads to frequent customer dissatisfaction as the internet vouchers run out, resulting in lost sales opportunities. To address this issue, this study aimed to predict voucher sales for the upcoming month to serve as a reference for calculating the stock of voucher supply. The Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method was used based on voucher sales data from November 2022 to January 2023. Out of the three tentative models obtained, only one proved suitable for use. The best ARIMA model was the (2,1,0) model, with a MAD value of 29.65, an MSE value of 2409.95, and a MAPE value of 23.3%. Based on the February voucher sales, the stock level can remain the same as the previous period since the sales were stable. The findings of this study can help Diamond Cell counter owners make more informed decisions about stocking internet vouchers, resulting in better customer satisfaction and reduced likelihood of losses.

Copyrights © 2023






Journal Info

Abbrev

isi

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT

Description

Journal-ISI is a scientific article journal that is the result of ideas, great and original thoughts about the latest research and technological developments covering the fields of information systems, information technology, informatics engineering, and computer science, and industrial engineering ...