Journal of Business and Political Economy: Biannual Review of The Indonesian Economy Review
Vol. 2 No. 1 (2020): Journal of Business and Political Economy: Biannual Review of The Indonesian Ec

The Threshold of External Debt Ratio in Indonesia

Siti Karimah (Bureau Statistics BPS of Buton Regency, Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia)
Nasrudin Nasrudin (Polytechnic of Statistics STIS, Indonesia)



Article Info

Publish Date
13 May 2020

Abstract

Since New Order1 regime, external debt has become one of the reliable capital sources in Indonesia. In 2017, the World Bank was incorporating Indonesia to the top ten middle-income country borrowers so it is necessary to analyze the effect of external debt ratio on economic growth. Using the debt Laffer curve theory, the authors determine the threshold of the external debt ratio. The method of analysis is quadratic regression. The research results indicate that there exists a non-linear relationship between the external debt ratio and economic growth in Indonesia. On the other hand, research results have found the threshold of external debt ratio in Indonesia is 48 per cent to Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The external debt ratio less than 48 per cent of GDP does not affect economic growth, but it will have a negative effect on economic growth when the ratio is more than 48 per cent of GDP. Keywords: external debt ratio, threshold, quadratic regression

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Journal Info

Abbrev

BisnisEkonomiPolitik

Publisher

Subject

Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences

Description

Journal of Business and Political Economy: Biannual Review of The Indonesian Economy Review [P-ISSN 2685-2004] is devoted to the study of political economy, economy, and business issues, focussing on encouraging transparency on the economic decision-making process in Indonesia. The review is ...