Article Per Year (5 Year)
p-Index From 2019 - 2024
2.723
P-Index
This Author published in this journals
All Journal Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Media Statistika Jurnal Sosio Agribisnis Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan AFEBI Economic and Finance Review GUIDENA: Jurnal Ilmu Pendidikan, Psikologi, Bimbingan dan Konseling Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Jurnal Litbang Sukowati : Media Penelitian dan Pengembangan Jurnal Kebijakan Pembangunan Daerah : Jurnal Penelitian dan Pengembangan Kebijakan Pembangunan Daerah Journal of Business and Political Economy: Biannual Review of The Indonesian Economy Review PROCEEDINGS OF THE INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON DATA SCIENCE AND OFFICIAL STATISTICS JEPI Economic and Finance in Indonesia
Nasrudin
Politeknik Statistika STIS
Humanities Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Environmental Science Social Sciences

Published : 19 Documents Claim Missing Document
Claim Missing Document
Check
Articles

Found 19 Documents
Search

 1   2 
ANALISIS PERAMALAN HARGA EMAS DI INDONESIA PADA MASA PANDEMI COVID-19 UNTUK INVESTASI Dyah Makutaning Dewi; Muhammad Zaky Nafi'; Nasrudin Nasrudin
Jurnal Litbang Sukowati : Media Penelitian dan Pengembangan Vol 5 No 2 (2022): Vol. 5 No. 2, Mei 2022
Publisher : Badan Perencanaan Pembangunan, Riset dan Inovasi Daerah Kabupaten Sragen

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32630/sukowati.v5i2.235

Abstract

Pandemic Coronavirus Disease-2019 (Covid-19) is an unusual occurrence. The Covid-19 makes people hesitant to invest. This is because the world economy is not in good condition.  Gold investment is one of the safest investments during the Covid-19 pandemic. The precious metal is widely chosen because the majority of the public is familiar with gold and easy to reach. In addition, because the price of gold tends to be stable and rarely inhabits the price drop, it is actually currently experiencing an increase in the price in a short time. One way to know the picture of gold price in Indonesia so that people are interested in investing in precious metals is to do forecasting using ARIMA Box-Jenkins method. The purpose of this research is to obtain gold price predictions in Indonesia over the next 30 days. The results of the analysis showed that ARIMA model (1,1,1) so that it can be concluded that the gold price prediction of the next 30 days continues to increase with the percentage of training data errors by 1,005 percent and the validation of the forecast from testing data by 3,93 percent.
FISCAL EFFECTIVENESS UNDER REGIONAL ECONOMIC INTEGRATION: INDONESIAN AGRICULTURAL PERFORMANCE CASE Nasrudin Nasrudin; Bonar M Sinaga; Muhammad Firdaus; Dedi Walujadi
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 5 Issue 1, 2013
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol5.iss1.art3

Abstract

AbstractThis paper investigates the effectiveness of fiscal policy in boosting agricultural sector performance and seeks the most effective policy in the presence of regional economic integration. It predicts the effectiveness of fiscal policy on the agricultural sector performance in four periods; the new order regime, the economic crisis, and pre and post China Free Trade Area (CAFTA). It also predicts the impact of fiscal policy on agricultural sector performance when CAFTA is fully implemented. It finds that fiscal policy is more effective in the optimum allocation of expenditures. It also finds that the agricultural sector can grow faster when the portion of capital expenditure increases.Keywords: Fiscal effectiveness, economic integration, agricultureJEL Classification Numbers: E62, F15, Q17AbstrakMakalah ini menyelidiki efektivitas kebijakan fiskal dalam mendorong kinerja sektor pertanian dan mencari kebijakan yang paling efektif dengan adanya integrasi ekonomi regional. Makalah ini memprediksi efektivitas kebijakan fiskal dalam meningkatkan kinerja sektor pertanian dalam empat periode; rezim orde baru, krisis ekonomi, sebelum pelaksanaan China Free Trade Area (CAFTA), dan setelah pelaksanaan CAFTA. Makalah ini juga memprediksi dampak kebijakan fiskal terhadap kinerja sektor pertanian saat CAFTA sepenuhnya dilaksanakan. Hasil analisis menemukan bahwa kebijakan fiskal lebih efektif dalam alokasi optimal dari pengeluaran. Analisis juga menemukan bahwa sektor pertanian dapat tumbuh lebih cepat ketika porsi peningkatan belanja modal meningkat.Keywords: Efektivitas fiskal, integrasi ekonomi, pertanianJEL Classification Numbers: E62, F15, Q17
Disaggregation and Forecasting of the Monthly Indonesian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Profita Sumunar Luthfiana; Nasrudin Nasrudin
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 20 No 4 (2018)
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (767.914 KB) | DOI: 10.21098/bemp.v20i4.905

Abstract

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is considered as the best measure of economicperformance. However, in Indonesia, the GDP is presented in quarterly aggregate value.As a result, the monthly economic outlook is unknown, and analysis with other monthlyeconomic variables becomes limited. Therefore, this study will disaggregate quarterlyGDP into monthly GDP and its forecasting by using one of the coincident indicatorswhich are monthly Production Index of Large and Medium Manufacturing (industrialproduction index). Disaggregation is done on National GDP data of Indonesia period2000/I to 2016 / IV, whereas forecasting is made on monthly and quarterly GDP 2017.This study uses a combination of the simple linear regression model and ARIMA modelwith some modifications. The disaggregation result indicates that the monthly GDPmoves volatile and has a different pattern between quarters. Also, the monthly GDPdisaggregation and forecasting are proven that can be used by industrial productionindex that becomes a coincident indicator. GDP 2017 shows that the highest quarterlyGDP will have occurred in the third quarter, whereas the highest monthly GDP willhave occurred in June (second quarter). The result of disaggregation can be used furtherto the study of economic outlook will be more comprehensive.
A FINANCIAL INCLUSION INDEX FOR INDONESIA Hilman Hanivan; Nasrudin Nasrudin
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 22 No 3 (2019)
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (642.165 KB) | DOI: 10.21098/bemp.v22i3.1056

Abstract

Numerous studies have constructed financial inclusion indexes for Indonesia, using amultidimensional approach. However, there is a problem with the methodology, whichassumes that all the dimensions play the same role in defining financial inclusion,since they are based on equal weighting criteria. This paper aims to obviate concernswith the methodology by developing a more empirically based index, namely, aweighted multidimensional index of financial inclusion based on two-stage principalcomponent analysis. In other words, we endogenize the weights. We find that usage isthe most important dimension in defining financial inclusion in Indonesia, followedby availability and access.
DAMPAK ASEAN-CHINA FREE TRADE AGREEMENT (ACFTA) TERHADAP KINERJA PEREKONOMIAN DAN SEKTOR PERTANIAN INDONESIA Nasrudin Nasrudin; Bonar M Sinaga; Dedi Walujadi
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 9 No 1 (2015)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (318.556 KB) | DOI: 10.30908/bilp.v9i1.13

Abstract

Sektor pertanian Indonesia seharusnya memperoleh dampak positif dari ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA). Namun demikian,  kinerja sektor pertanian belum menunjukkan peningkatan yang berarti ketika sebagian besar komoditas pertanian telah diturunkan tarifnya melalui tahapan ACFTA. Studi ini meneliti dampak ACFTA terhadap kinerja sektor pertanian Indonesia sebelum dan sesudah ACFTA dengan menggunakan deskriptif analisis. Studi ini juga memprediksi kinerja perekonomian dan kinerja sektor pertanian setelah ACFTA diberlakukan secara penuh menggunakan metode ekonometrik dengan persamaan simultan. Hasil studi ini menunjukkan bahwa kinerja sektor pertanian Indonesia tidak lebih baik dibandingkan dengan sebelum implementasi ACFTA, dan diprediksi akan lebih buruk lagi setelah ACFTA diberlakukan sepenuhnya, akibat dari tingginya tekanan kompetisi dan kekakuan produsen domestik. Peningkatan kualitas infrastruktur domestik, pengembangan riset/teknologi serta penerapan regulasi yang mendukung daya saing merupakan kebijakan yang sangat diperlukan. The ASEAN-China Frade Trade Agreement should positively influence Indonesia’s agricultural sector performance. Unfortunately, the current agricultural sector performance shows no signs of significant increase despite a decrease of tariffs on most agricultural commodities through ACFTA. This study sets out to examine the overall impact of ACFTA on Indonesian agricultural sector performance prior to and after the implementation of ACFTA through descriptive analysis. This study also predicts the overall economic performance and agricultural sector performance after the full implementation of ACFTA by utilizing econometric method with simultaneous equation. This study finds that the agricultural sector performance does not improve after the implementation of ACFTA and it argues further that it will weaken due to high pressure of competition and the rigidity of domestic producers. Quality improve on domestic infrastructure, research and technology development and regulations which enhance competitiveness are high priority policies to support Indonesia’s agricultural sector performance.
DAMPAK DEVALUASI YUAN TERHADAP PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA PENDEKATAN MODEL PERSAMAAN SIMULTAN Febria Ramana; Nasrudin Nasrudin
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 12 No 1 (2018)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (1174.636 KB) | DOI: 10.30908/bilp.v12i1.234

Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dampak devaluasi yuan terhadap perekonomian Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan skenario simulasi model persamaan simultan dengan metode estimasi Two Stage Least Square (2SLS). Hasil dari analisis ini menunjukkan bahwa devaluasi yuan berdampak signifikan terhadap perekonomian Indonesia melalui jalur perdagangan dan investasi. Pada blok perdagangan, devaluasi yuan menyebabkan ekspor Indonesia ke negara lain mengalami penurunan, terutama ekspor ke China karena devaluasi yuan lebih besar dibandingkan rupiah. Hal ini membuat produk China relatif lebih murah dibandingkan Indonesia. Pada blok investasi, total investasi meningkat karena investor beralih dari China ke Indonesia yang didorong tingkat pengembalian modal di China menurun. Sementara itu, pada blok moneter, nilai rupiah dan PDB Indonesia menurun akibat penurunan net ekspor lebih besar dibandingkan peningkatan FDI. Devaluasi rupiah pun memicu imported inflation. Secara keseluruhan, devaluasi yuan berdampak negatif bagi perekonomian Indonesia. Oleh karena itu, penting bagi Indonesia untuk mengurangi ketergantungan terhadap China, terutama dalam perdagangan. Hal ini dapat dilakukan dengan diversifikasi pasar dan peningkatan kualitas produk ekspor. This paper examines and provides an analysis regarding the impact of an economic shock, yuan devaluation, on the Indonesian economy. We analyze a simulation scenario by using simultaneous equation model with two-stage least square (2SLS) method. Empirical findings exhibit that shock has the significant impact on Indonesian economy through both of trade and investment transmissions. In trade block, Indonesian export to China has the most decreasing rather than others countries because of yuan more decrease than rupiah. In investment block, a total of investment gets the impact to rise, particularly in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) from China, caused by decreasing wealth of foreign investors in China.   Meanwhile, in the monetary block, the value of rupiah and Indonesian GDP simultaneously get the impact to decline, whereas yuan devalution leads Indonesian inflation to rise. Therefore, it is essential for the government to decrease Indonesian dependence on China, particularly in trade block. Some options which government should implement are market diversification and increasing export products quality.
SIMULASI KEBIJAKAN PADA IMPLEMENTASI PERJANJIAN KOMPREHENSIF INDONESIA-AUSTRALIA (IA-CEPA) TERHADAP PASAR DAGING SAPI DOMESTIK Najia Helmiah; Nasrudin
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 15 No 2 (2021): .
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30908/bilp.v15i2.633

Abstract

Abstrak Beberapa tahun terakhir, pemenuhan permintaan daging sapi di Indonesia masih bergantung pada impor khususnya dari Australia. Impor daging sapi dapat menstabilkan harga daging sapi domestik, tetapi di lain sisi dapat menekan pendapatan peternak lokal. Implementasi dari IA-CEPA adalah penghapusan tarif impor dan TRQ (Tariff Rate Quota) untuk komoditas sapi hidup. Penghapusan tarif menyebabkan harga sapi yang masuk ke Indonesia menjadi lebih murah dan memperbesar peluang peningkatan volume impor sapi hidup. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis skenario terbaik untuk meningkatkan kesejahteraan pelaku ekonomi dengan menggunakan model persamaan simultan 2SLS (two stage least square). Simulasi dilakukan untuk tiga skenario yaitu skenario penghapusan tarif, penetapan kuota, dan TRQ. Hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa skenario penghapusan tarif memberikan total peningkatan kesejahteraan pelaku ekonomi terbesar yaitu 115 miliar dengan rincian defisit 736 miliar bagi produsen, surplus 936 miliar bagi konsumen, dan defisit 85 miliar untuk penerimaan pemerintah. Oleh karena itu, skenario yang direkomendasikan adalah skenario penghapusan tarif pada impor sapi dari Australia. Kata Kunci: 2SLS, IA-CEPA, Pasar Daging Sapi Abstract Recently, demand fulfillment of beef in Indonesia depended on imports, especially from Australia. import can stabilize the domestic price of beef, but the other hand can suppress the income of local farmers. Implementation of IA-CEPA policies is the elimination of import tariff and TRQ (tariff rate quota) for live cattle commodities. Elimination of import tariff causes the price of cattle to enter Indonesia to be cheaper and increases the opportunity to increase the import volume of live cattle. The study aims to investigate the best scenario that can improve the welfare of economic actors using simultaneous equation model 2SLS (two-stage least squares). Three scenarios that simulated are eliminating tariff, setting quota, and TRQ. The result shows that eliminating tariffs gives the largest total welfare increase of economic actors that is 115 billion, with a 736 billion deficit for producers, 936 billion surplus for consumers, and 85 billion deficit for government revenue. Therefore, the policy recommendation is the scenario of eliminating tariffs on cattle imports from Australia. Keywords: 2SLS, IA-CEPA, Beef Market JEL Classification: C53, F12, F13
The Impact of Covid-19 on Indonesia's Financial System Stability Using ARIMA Intervention Analysis Dyah Makutaning Dewi; Alvian Ferrandy; Nur Aini; Nasrudin Nasrudin
AFEBI Economic and Finance Review Vol 7, No 1 (2022)
Publisher : Asosiasi Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47312/aefr.v7i1.463

Abstract

The financial system has an important role to play in helping the relocation of funds. If the financial system is in unstable condition it will disrupt production, consumption, and investment activities. Then, if financial institutions and financial markets that have a role as financial mediators are facing uncertainty, as a result the allocation of funds will not go well. Therefore, the financial system is strongly related to exchange rates and stocks. On March 2, 2020, the first case of Covid-19 occurred in Indonesia. As a result, the rupiah depreciated and in addition to impacting indonesia's weakening financial market conditions. Capital markets in Indonesia suffered a significant crash marked by a decline IHSG. The purpose of this research is to analyze the impact of Covid-19 on exchange rate movements and IHSG. This research uses the ARIMA intervention method. The results of the analysis showed the negative impact of Covid-19 on the stability of the financial system in Indonesia began to be felt after two weeks of confirmation of the first case. The depreciation of the rupiah is out of the ordinary since the 18th day and IHSG occurred since the 16th day after the announcement of the first case and  temporary.
ANALISIS DAMPAK GUNCANGAN HARGA MINYAK MENTAH TERHADAP MAKROEKONOMI INDONESIA: APLIKASI VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MECHANISM Michael Andre; Nasrudin Nasrudin
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 12, No 1 (2019): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (371.567 KB) | DOI: 10.14710/medstat.12.1.13-25

Abstract

Indonesian Crude Oil Price (ICP) often fluctuates by the shock of world oil prices. Because of its important role, the fluctuations or shocks in ICP will affect Indonesia's macro economy. To overcome this problem, this study analyzes the impact of the crude oil price shocks on Indonesia's macro economy which includes economic growth and the money supply (M2) during 2010-2016 using Vector Error Correction Mechanism (VECM). The results show that short-term fluctuations of ICP have a significant and positive effect on economic growth but have a non-significant effect on the money supply. In the long term equilibrium, ICP have a positive and significant effect to both economic growth and money supply which in line with Impulse Response Function (IRF) and Decomposition of Variance (FEDV) analysis. Given its positive impact, the recent decline in oil prices will harm the Indonesian economy. Therefore, the government needs to reduce its dependence on crude oil exports and accurately predict the crude oil price in the future.
SPILLOVER EFFECT INFLASI DAGING SAPI ANTAR KOTA: APLIKASI METODE BEKK-GARCH UNTUK JAKARTA, SALATIGA, DAN SURABAYA Ribut Nurul Tri Wahyuni; Nasrudin Nasrudin
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 13, No 1 (2020): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (329.538 KB) | DOI: 10.14710/medstat.13.1.80-91

Abstract

Beef consumption in Indonesia tends to increase and its price fluctuates. In addition to internal factors, the volatility of beef inflation can also be influenced by other regions (spillover effect). Using BEKK-GARCH model, we try to show spillover effect the volatility of beef inflation in Jakarta, Salatiga, and Surabaya. The transmissions of news effects occur from Jakarta and Surabaya to Salatiga and from Jakarta and Salatiga to Surabaya. Transmission of two-way volatility occurs between Jakarta and Surabaya. Furthermore, the transmission of one-way volatility occurrs from Jakarta to Salatiga. Price fluctuation in consumer areas will be followed by price fluctuation in other consumer areas and producer areas. Therefore, controlling beef inflation should be began from consumer areas.
Co-Authors Adin Nugroho Alvian Ferrandy Bonar M Sinaga Bonar M Sinaga Budiyanto Budiyanto Dedi Walujadi Dedi Walujadi Dyah Makutaning Dewi Dyah Makutaning Dewi Febria Ramana Hilman Hanivan Iyus Herdiana, Iyus Kusumastuti, Wanodya Meinisa Fadillah Rahmi Michael Andre Muhammad Firdaus Muhammad Zaky Nafi' Muhammad Zaky Nafi' Nadeak, Sarwono Alfian H. Najia Helmiah Nur Aini Nurain Fatma Savitri Profita Sumunar Luthfiana Ribut Nurul Tri Wahyuni Sari, Diah Rukmana Siti Karimah