Inferensi
Vol 6, No 2 (2023)

Aplikasi Model ARIMAX dengan Efek Variasi Kalender untuk Peramalan Trend Pencarian Kata Kunci “Zalora” pada Data Google Trends

Andrea Tri Rian Dani (Universitas Mulawarman)
Sri Wahyuningsih (Universitas Mulawarman)
Fachrian Bimantoro Putra (Universitas Mulawarman)
Meirinda Fauziyah (Universitas Mulawarman)
Sri Wigantono (Universitas Mulawarman)
Hardina Sandariria (Universitas Mulawarman)
Qonita Qurrota A'yun (Universitas Mulawarman)
Muhammad Aldani Zen (Universitas Mulawarman)

Article Info

Publish Date
29 Sep 2023

Abstract

ARIMAX is a method in time series analysis that is used to model an event by adding exogenous variables as additional information. Currently, the ARIMAX model can be applied to time series data that has calendar variation effects. In short, calendar variations occur due to changes in the composition of the calendar. The purpose of this study is to apply the ARIMAX model with the effects of calendar variations to forecast search trends for the keyword "Zalora". Data were collected starting from January 2018 to November 2022 in the form of a weekly series. Based on the results of the analysis, the ARIMAX model is obtained with calendar variation effects with ARIMA residuals (1,1,1). Forecasting accuracy using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 10.47%. Forecasting results for the next 24 periods tend to fluctuate and it is estimated that in April 2023 there will be an increase in search trends for the keyword "Zalora".

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Journal Info
Inferensi
Website

Abbrev

inferensi

Publisher

Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember Surabaya

Subject

Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Engineering Mathematics Social Sciences

Description

The aim of Inferensi is to publish original articles concerning statistical theories and novel applications in diverse research fields related to statistics and data science. The objective of papers should be to contribute to the understanding of the statistical methodology and/or to develop and ...