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Economic Journal of Emerging Markets
Published by Universitas Islam Indonesia
ISSN : 20863128     EISSN : 2502180x     DOI : -
Core Subject : Economy,
Economics, Econometrics & Finance
The Economic Journal of Emerging Markets (EJEM) is a peer-reviewed journal which provides a forum for scientific works pertaining to emerging market economies. Published every April and October, this journal welcomes original research papers on all aspects of economic development issues. The journal is fully open access for scholarly readers.
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Articles 8 Documents
 1 
Search results for , issue "Volume 13 Issue 1, 2021" : 8 Documents clear
Drivers of business cycles in Iran and some selected oil producing countries Abouzar Taheri; Shahriar Nessabian; Reza Moghaddasi; Farzin Arbabi; Marjan Damankeshideh
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 13 Issue 1, 2021
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol13.iss1.art4

Abstract

Purpose - This study is aimed at analyzing the main drivers of business cycle in Iran and some selected oil producing countries during the 1970:Q1-2015:Q4 period. In addition, the study evaluates causality of leading macroeconomic indicators for each different regimes of the business cycles.Methods - This study proposes a new methodological approach by combining Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressive (MSVAR) and MS-Granger causality approach.Findings - The results show that there are diverse sources of business cycle. Iran experienced higher volatility of GDP where machinery investment and export are found as main driver of its business cycle. Meanwhile, consumer price index has countercyclical effect in all countries. We also find some similarities to the US, the UK, and Canada regarding the probability of a business cycle, number of observations, and the average duration, especially in the first regime of MS-VAR models. The high level of oil price volatility relative to the GDP volatility indicates the power of oil price shock to generate cycles. In addition, the results of the traditional Granger causality test confirm the Markov-Switching Granger Causality (MS-GC) test in all countries except export from the UK.Implication - Identification the main driver of business cycles is very significant to formulate the steady growth path so that the government able to select the most adequate economic policy.Originality - The novelty of this study is the adoption of a new approach by combining stylized facts and MS-VAR and MS-Granger causality to analyze the business cycles in different regime.
Government fiscal spending and crowd-out of private investment: An empirical evidence for India Shiv Shankar; Pushpa Trivedi
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 13 Issue 1, 2021
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol13.iss1.art8

Abstract

Purpose - The paper evaluates the crowding-in or crowding-out relationship between public and private investment in India, controlling fiscal and monetary variables.Methods - In a flexible accelerator theoretical framework, the paper estimates long and short-run investment dynamics, employing Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration approach. We use a back series of national account statistics that incorporates enhanced coverage of the organized corporate sector.   Findings - Our results suggest investment complementarity between the public and private sector at an aggregate and sectoral level over the period 1981-2019. Barring short-run crowding-out in construction and financial services at industry level, public investment stimulates private counterparts, both in the long and short-run. However, fiscal deficit, inflation expectation, and sovereign vulnerability influence private investment adversely. Moreover, the long-run crowding-out bearing of fiscal imbalance is quantitatively higher when the public sector invests in mining and manufacturing and insignificant with infrastructure.Implication - Sizable infrastructure investment as a proportion of government finances would moderate the adverse impact of the deficit on private investment. Further, quality fiscal adjustments and containing inflation would enhance private investment activities.Originality - Besides aggregate and sectoral levels, the study also evaluates the impact of industry-level public investment on private capital expenditure.  This paper also incorporates derived variables in the regression framework using statistical filters and the principal component technique.
Similarity evidence between the country risk and the idiosyncratic risk: An empirical study of the Brazilian case André Assis de Salles
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 13 Issue 1, 2021
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol13.iss1.art6

Abstract

Purpose - This paper estimates the idiosyncratic risk (IDR) time series in the Brazilian economy and verifies its interaction with the Brazilian country risk indicators, measured by the EMBI+ (the Emerging Markets Bond Index).Methods - This paper estimates various regression models to capture the dynamic nature of the variables. The models include the heteroscedastic conditional autoregressive models and vector error correction models (VECM). Findings - The results show similarities or associations between the two indicators with interactions in the short and long run. The idiosyncratic risk proves to be a relevant indicator of the risk of economic activities implemented within the scope of the Brazilian economy and can help evaluate investments in related projects. This results also provide evidence of cointegration between the EMBI+ and IDR variations.Implication - This result suggests an alternative way for obtaining estimates of the expected return required by economic agents in financing and investing in productive and infrastructure projects necessary for developing the Brazilian economy that provides greater employability and good social welfare.Originality - This paper provides an alternative estimate of the time series proxy of idiosyncratic risk in the Brazilian economy. It also compares the results with the time series results obtained from the country risk measure EMBI+, widely used among resource managers in the international markets.
The role of agricultural productivity in economic growth in middle-income countries: An empirical investigation Arif Eser Güzel; Cemil Serhat Akin
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 13 Issue 1, 2021
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol13.iss1.art2

Abstract

Purpose - This study investigates the role of agricultural productivity in economic growth in middle-income countries.Methods - This study utilizes the data of 53 middle-income countries over the period 1991-2017 and provides robust estimations using second-generation panel data methods considering cross-sectional dependency.Findings - The estimation results of the Common Correlated Effects Mean Group (CCEMG), Dynamic-CCEMG, and biased-corrected form of Dynamic-CCEMG, suggest that agricultural productivity is the main engine of economic growth. Additional findings show that economic growth is positively associated with both physical capital and human capital. This paper does not find any significant relationship between trade openness and economic growth.Implications - This study reveals that the industrialization process in middle-income countries to boost economic growth can be accelerated by implementing policies to increase productivity in the agricultural sector.Originality - This study focuses on analyzing the effect of agricultural productivity neglected mainly in recent studies on economic growth. This paper develops a second-generation estimator that considers cross-sectional dependence.
Environmental Kuznets Curve: Moderating role of financial development Mansoor Mushtaq; Shabbir Ahmed
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 13 Issue 1, 2021
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol13.iss1.art3

Abstract

Purpose - This study analyzes the moderating role of financial development in the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis in 25 countries.Methods - This paper uses Lin and Chu unit root test to check the stationary of the variables. The unit root test result leads to the investigation using the panel pooled mean group model.Findings - The results of the long-run analysis show that the EKC hypothesis exists, and financial development plays its role in two ways. Firstly, it confirms the EKC hypothesis, and secondly, it improves the coefficients of supporting variables, namely economic growth, energy growth, and manufacturing value-added. The results are robust to changing the proxies of dependent as well as independent variables. The error correction model results show that the sign of the error correction term is negative and significant, implying that all of the models will converge toward their long-run equilibrium.Implications - Financial development is a crucial determinant to reduce environmental degradation in these countries. This implies that the governments of these countries should focus on enhancing financial development for the betterment of the environment.Originality - The study analyzes the role of the financial sector as a moderating role in the EKC hypothesis both in emerging economies and well-developed economies.
Bank lending in an emerging economy: How does central bank reserve accumulation matter? Van Dan Dang; Japan Huynh
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 13 Issue 1, 2021
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol13.iss1.art5

Abstract

Purpose - The paper examines the impacts of the central bank's foreign exchange reserves on bank lending, captured by the dimensions of quantity (loan growth) and quality (credit risk).Methods - This research analysis is based on bank-year observations in Vietnam during 2007–2019 and employs the two-step system Generalized Method of Moments in dynamic panels.Findings - This study finds that banks tend to increase their loan growth rate in response to reserves accumulation. Banks also expand loans and cash items on their asset structure while subsequently slashing total security investments and disaggregate government bond holdings. Our results also indicate that the central bank reserves accumulation is associated with less credit risk and more financial stability of the banking system.Implication - This paper supports the notion that reserve accumulation could be a complementary monetary policy tool for lending navigation and economic growth. Besides, reserve interventions may be used for financial stability, given the finding that it is found to curtail bank credit risk and financial instability.Originality - This paper contributes to the literature by focusing on critical aspects of bank lending, including quantity and quality, to paint a bigger picture of the benefits and costs of reserve accumulation and decompose bank asset portfolios into disaggregate components, thereby providing more insight into bank responses.
Monetary policy transmission: Balance sheet channel and investment behavior of firms in Pakistan Amir Rafique; Muhammad Umer Quddoos; Shujat Ali; Faheem Aslam; Muneeb Ahmad
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 13 Issue 1, 2021
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol13.iss1.art1

Abstract

Purpose - This study investigates the relevance of the balance sheet channel of monetary policy transmission concerning non-financial firms at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX), a firm-level data.Methods - This paper estimates a family of panel data regression models and constructs a dummy variable for monetary policy tightness.Findings - The result indicates a positive relationship between cash flows and investment during periods of monetary tightness. The impact on cash flows is visibly more pronounced than that of the quantitative effect of an increase in capital cost, which gives rise to a balance sheet channel. Three financial constraints, namely size, leverage, and dividend policy, are used to segregate firms into financially constrained and unconstrained firms.Implication - The results highlight the balance sheet channel impact on smaller firms' cash. The cash flows of highly leveraged firms were impacted more during the tight monetary policy periods and thereby were more prone to decline in investments. Results on constraints of dividend policy are, however, inconclusive.Originality - The paper contributes to the literature by investigating the relevance of the balance sheet channel of monetary policy transmission concerning non-financial firms using firm-level data. It also contributes to the literature by constructing a dummy variable to measure monetary policy tightness.
Commercial banks regulation and intermediation function in an emerging market Amalachukwu Chijindu Ananwude; Steve Nkem Ibenta; Gideon Kasie Ezu; Celestine Sunday Okaro
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 13 Issue 1, 2021
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol13.iss1.art7

Abstract

Purpose - This paper investigates the effect of commercial bank regulations, namely the price, product, and geographic regulations, on the intermediation function of commercial banks in Nigeria. Methods - Using secondary data from 1986 to 2017 from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the World Bank, this study employs the Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) model and Granger causality framework.Findings - This paper provides evidence of a long-run relationship between commercial bank regulation and intermediation function represented by private sector credit to RGDP (regional gross domestic product). It also finds that commercial banks' regulation index through price, product, and geographic regulation has a positive relationship with intermediation function. Furthermore, the long-run relationship between commercial bank regulation and intermediation function described by private sector credit to RGDP is affirmed.Implication - The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) needs to relax the product regulation to allow commercial banks to engage in various conventionally non-banking activities.Originality - The paper contributes to the literature by ascertaining the commercial banks' intermediation function to Nigeria's economic growth and development.

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