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Testing Weak Form of Stock Market Efficiency at The Indonesia Sharia Stock Index Agustin, Isnaini Nuzula
Muqtasid: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Perbankan Syariah Vol 10, No 1 (2019): MUQTASID: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Perbankan Syariah
Publisher : IAIN Salatiga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18326/muqtasid.v10i1.17-29

Abstract

AbstractEfficient Market is the market where all traded securities prices reflects all available information. Market Efficient Hypotesis in the Weak Form stated that past stock price movement incorporated with current securities’s prices, thus it can be used to predicting the current price or return. The objective of this research is to examine the weak form of Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) in Indonesia Sharia Stock Index (ISSI) over the period of January 3rd2017 -February 8th 2019. To Examine the EMH, some appropriate tests are developed, these are: Run Test, Autocorrelation Test, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), and Paired Sample t-test. The result findings showing that ISSI is not efficient in the weak form during the period of the study. Moreover, in accordance with time series modelling result, the fitted model is ARIMA (1,1,1) with accuracy level of 78%. This result proved that ARIMA model successfully and accurately in forecasting ISSI indices. It can be implied that the historical stock index data in the past still described the stock index information in the future. Thus, technical analysis is still feasible to do as the guide for investors in conducting transactions in the capital market.AbstrakPasar yang efisien adalah pasar dimana semua harga sekuritas yang diperdagangkan telah mencerminkan semua informasi yang tersedia. Teori pasar efisien bentuk lemah menyatakan bahwa perubahan harga masa lalu tidak berhubungan dengan harga sekuritas sekarang, sehingga tidak dapat digunakan untuk memprediksi harga atau return dari sekuritas. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melakukan pengujian hipotesis pasar efisien bentuk lemah pada Indeks Saham Syariah Indonesia (ISSI). Data diambil pada periode 3 Januari 2017 – 8 Februari 2019. Pada tahap awal penelitian, Run test dan Autocorrelation test dilakukan untuk melihat apakah pasar efisien bentuk lemah berlaku pada ISSI. Selanjutnya dilakukan pembentukan pemodelan time series ARIMA untuk melihat teknik prediksi yang sesuai untuk memprediksi Indeks Saham ISSI. Hasil Run test dan Autocorrelation test menunjukkan bahwa hipotesis pasar efisien bentuk lemah tidak terbukti. Pada pembentukan model ARIMA, terlihat bahwa model yang sesuai adalah ARIMA (1,1,1) menghasilkan tingkat akurasi sebesar 78%. Hal ini membuktikan bahwa model ARIMA berhasil dan akurat digunakan untuk memprediksi Indeks Harga Saham ISSI. Oleh karena itu, analisis teknikal masih dapat digunakan oleh investor untuk menjadi pedoman dalam melakukan transaksi perdagangan di pasar modal.
Perancangan Inventory System Hira Batik Menggunakan Aplikasi Microsoft Access Agustin, Isnaini Nuzula; Lukito, Ivander
Madani: Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat dan Kewirausahaan Vol. 2 No. 3 (2024): April 2024
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Internasional Batam

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

Hira Batik is an SME (Small and Medium Enterprise) in Batam City specializing in batik fashion which faces inventory management challenges due to the absence of a system to record incoming and sold products. This lack of documentation makes it difficult to track inventory levels, potentially leading to errors in stock management. To address this issue, the author has designed an inventory system using the Microsoft Access application. The data collection approach involves direct interviews with the SME to understand inventory management processes, challenges faced, and system requirements. Additionally, secondary data techniques are utilized to gain further insights into best practices in inventory management. The proposed system aims to assist Hira Batik in monitoring, recording, and managing inventory more efficiently and accurately. The results for Hira Batik show a significant change in warehouse checks, now utilizing an inventory system designed to make a significant contribution and facilitate the recording of transaction data and transaction history.
PERBANDINGAN PENGARUH HARGA MINYAK MENTAH TERHADAP INDEKS HARGA SAHAM PERUSAHAAN ENERGI DI INDONESIA DAN MALAYSIA SELAMA PERANG RUSSIA UKRAINA Agustin, Isnaini Nuzula; Hesniati, Hesniati; Ellen, Ellen; Jasmine, Florentina; Vernando, Lovis; Kelvin, Kelvin; Vincent, Vincent
PROMOSI: Jurnal Program Studi Pendidikan Ekonomi (e-Journal) Vol 11, No 2 (2023): PROMOSI
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS MUHAMMADIYAH METRO

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24127/pro.v11i2.9118

Abstract

One of the world's largest consumption of energy is crude oil, which is a source of transportation fuel. Crude oil is often used as an indicator of the world economy because fluctuating oil prices can affect a country's capital market, both developed and developing countries. This study aims to analyze the comparison of the effect of crude oil prices on stock indexes in Indonesia and Malaysia during the RussiaUkraine War. This research is a comparative research using saturated sampling data collection method with a total sample of 454. The data is taken from index data listed on the Indonesian and Malaysian stock exchanges and world oil price data, then the data is tested using the Statistical Program for Social Science application. (SPSS). The results of this study indicate that the price of crude oil has a significant positive effect on the stock price index of Indonesian energy companies, while for Malaysia it produces a significant negative relationship.
Fundamental analysis in predicting stock returns for Indonesia transportation and logistics companies during Covid-19 pandemic Agustin, Isnaini Nuzula; Lukito, Ivander
Jurnal Manajemen Bisnis dan Kewirausahaan Vol 7 No 6 (2023): Jurnal Manajemen Bisnis dan Kewirausahaan
Publisher : Universitas Tarumanagara

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24912/jmbk.v7i6.27270

Abstract

The development of companies in the transportation and logistics sector has been hindered by the increasing Covid-19 pandemic, which minimizes outdoor activities. This study aims to determine the fundamental factors affecting companies’ stock returns during the Covid-19 pandemic. Data collection was obtained from annual financial reports available on the official website of idx.co.id during the period 2017-2021, resulting in 81 samples, and panel data regression analysis was used as the research method. The results of the study showed that return on assets had a positive and significant effect on stock returns, while net profit margin had a negative and significant effect on stock returns. Additionally, other variables did not have a significant effect on stock returns. The limitation of this research was that it only used one sector of companies and only tested 21 companies that met the criteria. Perkembangan perusahaan sektor transportasi dan logistik semakin terhambat seiring meningkatnya pandemi Covid-19 yang meminimalisir kegiatan di luar rumah. target dalam penelitian ini mengetahui faktor fundamental perusahaan terhadap pengembalian saham pada masa pandemi Covid-19. Pengumpulan data didapatkan dari laporan keuangan tahunan yang tersedia di website resmi idx.co.id selama periode 2017-2021 sehingga didapatkan 81 sampel dan menggunakan analisis regresi data panel sebagai metode penelitian. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa return on asset berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap pengembalian saham dan net profit margin berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap pengembalian saham. Selain itu, variabel lainnya tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pengembalian saham. Limitasi penelitian ini adalah keterbatasan jumlah data mengingat periode Covid-19 baru dimulai sejak 2020 dan masih berjalan hingga saat ini.
How does the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Indonesia's Islamic stock returns? Agustin, Isnaini Nuzula
JEMA: Jurnal Ilmiah Bidang Akuntansi dan Manajemen Vol. 18 No. 1 (2021): JEMA: Jurnal Ilmiah Bidang Akuntansi dan Manajemen
Publisher : University of Islam Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31106/jema.v18i1.9235

Abstract

The unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic has ripped down the worldwide economies since the beginning of 2020. The stock market was one of the economic sectors that experienced depression and crashed during the pandemic. In this study, we mount an investigation on how Indonesia's large-scale social restrictions (known as "PSBB"), the announcement of the daily growth in total confirmed and death cases by COVID-19 affect the dynamic of Islamic stock returns in the Jakarta Islamic Index. This study used panel regression to test the effect between variables with market-to-book ratio and market capitalization ruled as a control variable. This study concluded that the announcement of daily growth in total confirmed cases by COVID-19 and the implementation of PSBB has a negative effect on the deterioration of the Islamic stock market's stability. Therefore, the higher growth of the total confirmed cases by COVID-19 and the tightening of the PSBB that was announced and implemented by the government would impact on the volatility of market and shareholders returns negatively. Interestingly, this study also found that there was a positive and significant relationship between the daily growth of death cases and stock return. Furthermore, the sectors of consumer goods, mining, and trading counted as the most performed market during the pandemic crisis.
Can Social Responsible Investment and Gold be a Good Diversifier for Indonesia Sharia Investors? Agustin, Isnaini Nuzula
Jurnal Keuangan dan Perbankan Vol 26, No 1 (2022): January 2022
Publisher : University of Merdeka Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26905/jkdp.v26i1.6929

Abstract

The COVID-19 Pandemic persists after the global financial crisis resumption of financial turbulence. This vulnerabilities phenomenon compelled investors to restructure their portfolio by implementing a well-diversification strategy. The Sharia Investment and Environment Social Governance (ESG) Investment are two types of investment that enormously attract investors' interest, partly due to their resilience in times of crisis. This study examines the market integration between Sharia stocks, ESG stocks, and Gold and empirically compares its integration in the period before and during the covid-19 Pandemic. The data used were daily closing prices on two Indonesia Sharia indices, ESG index and Gold price from January 2, 2015, to August 31, 2021. Through Johansen Cointegration, the results ascertain the cointegration among variables, implying limited diversification opportunities among assets in the long run. Vector Error Correction Model found the significant short-term relationship between the Sharia stock index and ESG investment in the pre-pandemic period but turned out to be insignificant during the Pandemic. Further, the finding confirms the Gold's ability as a good diversifier for both assets in the pre-pandemic period. However, during the Pandemic, it suggests that gold can indeed provide diversification gains only for the ESG index. Our results have imperative implications about the asset allocation under portfolio optimization.
Analisis Dampak Perilaku Keuangan Terhadap Keputusan Investasi Cryptocurrencies pada Generasi Milenial di Indonesia Justyanita, Justyanita; Agustin, Isnaini Nuzula
Jurnal Ilmiah Poli Bisnis Vol 14 No 2 (2022): Volume 14 Nomor 2
Publisher : Politeknik Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30630/jipb.v14i2.825

Abstract

Pengambilan keputusan memiliki peran penting dalam perilaku keuangan terutama terkait perilaku investor didasarkan pada berbagai bias psikologis, perilaku, volatilitas pasar dan peluang untuk memaksimalkan keuntungan. Investor seringkali bertindak secara tidak rasional dalam pengambilan keputusan suatu investasi terutama investor muda milenial yang lebih mengincar keuntungan dari volatilitas harga. Penelitian ini bertujuan menguji atau merumuskan hipotesis yang mempengaruhi pengambilan keputusan investor dari behavioral finance yang terdiri dari overconfidence, gambler’s fallacy, mental accounting, disposition effect, dan hindsight terhadap investment decision. Selain itu, studi ini juga menganalisa peran Risk perceptions sebagai variabel mediasi antara Overconfidence terhadap investment decision. Dengan menggunakan Teknik convenience sampling, didapatkan jumlah responden sebanyak 452 investor sebagai responden. Metode analisis data yang digunakan adalah Partial Least Squares – Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa gambler’s fallacy dan mental accounting berpengaruh signifikan terhadap investment decision. Lebih lanjut, studi ini juga membuktikan hubungan signifikan antara overconfidence terhadap investment decision dengan risk perceptions sebagai variabel mediasi.
ESG Performance and Indonesia Stock Return Agustin, Isnaini Nuzula; Suhendri, Nindi; Anchao, Wang; Yulfiswandi, Yulfiswandi
Jurnal Riset Akuntansi dan Keuangan Vol 12, No 2 (2024): Jurnal Riset Akuntansi dan Keuangan. Agustus 2024 [DOAJ dan SINTA Indexed]
Publisher : Program Studi Akuntansi FPEB UPI

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.17509/jrak.v12i2.71539

Abstract

As the sustainability become imperative, investors started to pay attention on how ESG performance affect the market performance. This study aims to analyze the influence of ESG performance on stock returns and volatility, with Covid-19 stringency posits as moderating variable. This study include all companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange spans from 2020 to 2022, resulting 150 observations. Employing panel regression, this study exhibit that the Social aspect significantly influence stock returns, while environment aspect has a significant effect on stock return. Further, it has also revealed that covid-19 stringency proved to moderating the relationship between Governance and ESG on stock volatility, implying the prominence of government intervention during the pandemic. This finding is expected to be useful for investors who are concerns on ethical and sustainability point of view. By understanding the ESG- market performance nexus, investors are expected to have clearer picture on sustainable stock selections.
Analisis Dampak Perilaku Keuangan Terhadap Keputusan Investasi Cryptocurrencies pada Generasi Milenial di Indonesia: Analysis Impact of Financial Behavior on Cryptocurrencies Investment Decisions for The Millenial Generation in Indonesia Justyanita, Justyanita; Agustin, Isnaini Nuzula
EKOMABIS: Jurnal Ekonomi Manajemen Bisnis Vol. 4 No. 02 (2023): Ekomabis Edisi Juli 2023
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Pelita Bangsa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37366/ekomabis.v4i02.377

Abstract

Pengambilan keputusan memiliki peran penting dalam perilaku keuangan terutama terkait perilaku investor didasarkan pada berbagai bias psikologis, perilaku, volatilitas pasar dan peluang untuk memaksimalkan keuntungan. Investor seringkali bertindak secara tidak rasional dalam pengambilan keputusan suatu investasi terutama investor muda milenial yang lebih mengincar keuntungan dari volatilitas harga. Penelitian ini bertujuan menguji atau merumuskan hipotesis yang mempengaruhi pengambilan keputusan investor dari behavioral finance yang terdiri dari overconfidence, gambler’s fallacy, mental accounting, disposition effect, dan hindsight terhadap investment decision. Selain itu, studi ini juga menganalisa peran Risk perceptions sebagai variabel mediasi antara Overconfidence terhadap investment decision. Dengan menggunakan Teknik convenience sampling, didapatkan jumlah responden sebanyak 452 investor sebagai responden. Metode analisis data yang digunakan adalah Partial Least Squares – Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa gambler’s fallacy dan mental accounting berpengaruh signifikan terhadap investment decision. Lebih lanjut, studi ini juga membuktikan hubungan signifikan antara overconfidence terhadap investment decision dengan risk perceptions sebagai variabel mediasi. Decision-making process plays a prominent role in financial behaviour, particularly about investor behaviour which is commonly based on enormous psychological biases, behaviour, market volatility and the opportunity to reach maximum return. Investors often have irrationality in main investment decisions, especially young millennials investors who are interested in profit gaining during the price volatility. This study aims to examine some variables which hypothetically influence the investment decision making. These variables are overconfidence, gambler’s fallacy, mental accounting, disposition effect, and hindsight. Further, this study also analyses the role of risk perceptions as a mediating variable between overconfidence and investment decision. Using a convenience sampling technique, the number of survey’s participants is 452 respondents. The data analysis method used is Partial Least Squares – Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM). The results reveal that gambler’s fallacy and mental accounting have a significant effect on investment decisions. In addition, this study ascertains the significant role of risk perceptions as a mediating variable between overconfidence and investment decision.