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All Journal Communication in Biomathematical Sciences
Wijaya, Karunia Putra
Mathematical Institute, University of Koblenz-Landau, 56070 Koblenz
Social Sciences

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Comparison of Dengue Transmission in Lowland and Highland Area: Case Study in Semarang and Malang, Indonesia Fauzi, Ilham Saiful; Fakhruddin, Muhammad; Nuraini, Nuning; Wijaya, Karunia Putra
Communication in Biomathematical Sciences Vol 2, No 1 (2019)
Publisher : Indonesian Bio-Mathematical Society

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (545.281 KB) | DOI: 10.5614/cbms.2019.2.1.3

Abstract

Dengue is a potentially lethal mosquito-borne disease, regarded as the most dangerous disease in the world. It is also a major health issue in tropical and subtropical countries. Environmental characteristics and sociocultural are factors which play a role in the spread of dengue. Different landscape structure such as lowland and highland areas are possible to give different infection rate on dengue transmission. Semarang and Malang are densely populated areas in Java, which are selected to be our study areas. A mathematical model (SIR-UV) is adapted to describe dengue transmission. Spiral dynamic optimization is applied to convert monthly data to weekly in Malang and estimate the infection rate that minimized the deviation between dengue data and simulation. This method produces a good fitting to the data. We compare the pattern of dengue cases from the simulation in both cities. Furthermore, we identify seasonal variations of the cases via Fourier series of the infection rate. We also investigate the correlation between humidity, infection rate, and dengue cases in Semarang and Malang. It reveals that humidity influences infection rate in 1-3 weeks later and the infection rate produces dengue cases in the next four weeks.
Co-Authors Fakhruddin, Muhammad Ilham Saiful Fauzi Nuning Nuraini