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Journal : Contemporary Mathematics and Applications (ConMathA)

ANALISIS PENGARUH ANGKA KEMATIAN BAYI TERHADAP ANGKA HARAPAN HIDUP DI PROVINSI JAWA TIMUR BERDASARKAN ESTIMATOR LEAST SQUARE SPINE Anies Yulinda W; Trias Novia L.; Melati Tegarina; Nur Chamidah
Contemporary Mathematics and Applications (ConMathA) Vol. 1 No. 1 (2019)
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (652.916 KB) | DOI: 10.20473/conmatha.v1i1.14775

Abstract

Life expectancy can be used to evaluate the government's performance for improving the welfare of the population in the health sector. Life expectancy is closely related to infant mortality rate. Theoretically, decreasing of infant mortality rate will cause increasing of life expectancy. A statistical method that can be used to model life expectancy is nonparametric regression model based on least square spline estimator. This method provides high flexibility to accommodate pattern of data by using smoothing technique. The best estimated model is order one spline model with one knot based on minimum generalized cross validation (GCV) value of 0.607. Each increasing of one infant mortality rate unit will cause decreasing of life expectancy of  0.2314 for infant mortality rate less than 27, and of  0.0666 for infant mortality rate more than and equals to 27. In addition, based on mean square error (MSE) of 0.492 and R2value of 76.59% for nonparametric model approach compared with MSE of 0.634 and R2 value of 71.8%  for parametric model approach, we conclude that the use of nonparametric model approach based on least square spline estimator is better than that of parametric model approach.
Modeling of Incident Status Dengue Fever in East Nusa Tenggara Using Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression Approach A Meylin; N. A. Aprilianti; D Lestari; Nur Chamidah
Contemporary Mathematics and Applications (ConMathA) Vol. 2 No. 2 (2020)
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20473/conmatha.v2i2.23856

Abstract

Dengue fever is a disease caused by one of the four dengue viruses and this disease is an infectious disease that is spread through the bite of the Aedes Aegypti mosquito. When compared with the number of dengue cases in previous years, East Nusa Tenggara (NTT) was one of the provinces that experienced an increase in the number of dengue cases in the last three years. Previous research states that the transmission of dengue fever is caused by several factors, one of which is environmental factors of geographical location so that spatial aspects need to be involved in this study. A the statistical method that can be used to analyze spatial data in the form of a logistic regression equation that has a binary response variable is the Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression (GWLR) method. This study aims to analyze the factors that influence the high number of dengue fever cases in NTT in 2018 using GWLR approach by weighted the Gaussian kernel function. Based on the results of GWLR analysis, the number of rainy days and the number of health workers partially significantly influence the status of dengue fever events in each regency/city in NTT Province in 2018. Based on the calculation of Press’s Q value, the prediction in this study was accurate with the accuracy of classification was 0.8636 or 86.36%.
Designing Standard Growth Chart Based on Weight-For-Age Z-Score of Children in East Java Using Least-Square Spline Estimator Nur Chamidah; Ardi Kurniawan; Toha Saifudin
Contemporary Mathematics and Applications (ConMathA) Vol. 4 No. 2 (2022)
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20473/conmatha.v4i2.38917

Abstract

Children would be categorized as children who have underweight nutritional status, if according to index of anthropometric they have a lack of weight. In Indonesia, this anthropometric index is recorded on a Card Toward Health called as KMS. This card follows the WHO-2005 standard which is designed based on samples from Brazil, Ghana, India, Norway, Oman, and USA. Those samples, of course, physically are very different from Indonesian children. Therefore, in this paper we design weight-for-age Z-score standard growth charts of children by using least-square spline estimator and samples of children from East Java province, Indonesia. Next, the proposed children standard growth charts are used to assess East Java children nutritional status. The results show that the proposed standard growth charts have met the goodness of fit criteria namely the average values of coefficient determination for boy and girl are close to one, and values of mean square errors are close to zero. It means that the proposed growth charts are more suitable to be used to assess the nutritional status of East Java children, because they can better explain the real conditions of children in East Java, Indonesia than the WHO-2005 standard growth charts.