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Journal : Media Ekonomi dan Manajemen

Determinants of Regional Economics Growth Sri Nawatmi; Agung Nusantara; Agus Budi Santosa
Media Ekonomi dan Manajemen Vol 35, No 1 (2020): Competitive Challenges Facing Indonesia in the Global Economy
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomika dan Bisnis UNTAG Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (245.807 KB) | DOI: 10.24856/mem.v35i1.1208

Abstract

This study aims to determine what factors influence regional economic growth. The analysis technique used is to combine time series data and cross-section (pooling data). Time-series data from 2015 - 2017 and cross section data consisting of 34 provinces in Indonesia. The results of the model test using the redundant fixed effect test and random effect-Hausman test show that the best model is the fixed effect model (FEM). Regression results show that only the HDI (Human Development Index) variable is not significant, the other variables (fiscal decentralization, capital, and labor) have a significant positive effect on regional economic growth.
Data Driven Perspective on Stock Price - Macroeconomic Variables: Indonesia Economy 2016-2020 Agung Nusantara; Sri Nawatmi; Agus Budi Santosa
Media Ekonomi dan Manajemen Vol 37, No 2 (2022): July 2022
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomika dan Bisnis UNTAG Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24856/mem.v37i2.2818

Abstract

AbstractThe use of a theory-driven perspective is very common, especially in economics research, and even becomes an inevitable approach. Problems arise when data, as a form of reality, does not synergize with theory. The resulting conclusion is very likely to be different from the theoretical statement. One method that refers to data-driven is the Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) model, which puts all the variables involved in a position as endogenous variables. This study seeks to identify a statistically more accurate relationship in the relationship between variables, stock prices, consumer price index, Jakarta Inter-Bank Over rate, exchange rate, and Net Balance Trade. Observations were made from January 2016 to December 2020. This study found evidence that there is a recursive relationship between stock price variables and macroeconomic variables. The VAR model identifies the Net Balance Trade variable as an endogenous variable in 3 types of sectoral stocks and only manufacturing sector stocks that resemble it. These results have two theoretical consequences: first, setting stock prices without differentiating sectors carries the risk of generalization errors. Second, setting stock prices as the endogenous variable means assuming that the market is perfect, and efficient and market participants have rational behavior.