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Pemodelan Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Untuk Memprediksi Jumlah Kasus Covid-19 di Padang Widdya Rahmalina; Sari Puspita
Jurnal Matematika Integratif Vol 17, No 1: April 2021
Publisher : Department of Matematics, Universitas Padjadjaran

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24198/jmi.v17.n1.32024.23-31


Padang city has been in the red zone (high risk) and orange zone (medium risk) against the transmission of the Covid-19 virus for several months. This is due to the lack of community discipline in complying with health protocols. The existence of the Andalas University Hospital Laboratory in Padang City which has the tools to issue the SWAB test results also results in data being obtained very quickly and data collection is more accurate. To predict the number of new cases of Covid-19 patients, research on forecasting is necessary. One method that can be used is the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average method or abbreviated as SARIMA. This method was chosen because the data shows a weekly seasonal pattern. The data used are daily data from 2 August 2020 to 6 January 2021 obtained from the Padang City Health Office . The results showed that the SARIMA (0,1,1) (0,1,1) 7 model is the best model with parameter estimates that are significantly different from zero, so that it fulfills the white noise assumption with a Means Squared Error value of 3.46731. Forecasting results for the next month show that cases of Covid-19 patients are still fluctuating, ranging from 20 to 66 people. For this reason, efforts from the local government of the City of Padang are needed in disciplining the community so that the conditions of Padang City can immediately turn into a green (safe) zone from Covid-19.
Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Multidisiplin Vol 4 No 1 (2020): Oktober
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Abdurrab

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.36341/jpm.v4i1.1485


The Covid-19 pandemic that hit the world had an impact on the world of education where schools carried out the Teaching and Learning Process by online , one of which was the Adzkia Integrated Islamic school at the TK and SD levels. Since PBM is conducted online, the teachers only give assignments via group WhatsApp to students such as reading books, practice questions, etc. This makes learning monotonous and students get bored, so it is necessary to increase teacher qualifications in making interesting learning media such as instructional videos. Therefore, community service is carried out in the form of training in making interesting learning videos using smartphone. The training method is in the form of a demonstration of making a good learning video, direct practice methods with assistance in terms of making video and video editing using the kinemaster application, and assignment methods and competitions for making learning videos. This service aims to make Adzkia Integrated Islamic Kindergarten and SD teachers make interesting learning videos so that students are still excited about learning at home even though by online. The result of this service activity is that teachers can understand how to make learning videos and are skilled at using the kinemaster android application to edit videos to make them more interesting. In addition, since the training was held until now, teachers have applied the knowledge of making learning videos in PBM by online which are also shared on YouTube.
Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Multidisiplin Vol 4 No 2 (2021): Februari
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Abdurrab

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.36341/jpm.v4i2.1663


There are still many parents who take their children to go to kindergarten institutions with the aim that their children can learn to read, write, count and be good at (reading) the Koran. Like what happened in Hauriyah Halum Integrated Kindergarten. Since the learning process is implemented, parents only fulfill all the needs of the children requested by the institution for the learning process including completing school administration. After that, the parents are only tasked with taking the child to school in the morning and picking up the child from school after the learning process, and sometimes asking how many stars the child's work got. Parents do not think at all about the child's behavior while at school, such as annoying friends, making noise during the learning process, hitting friends, and saying bad words to friends. This is often conveyed by the teacher every time the child comes home from school with the hope that the parents advise the child while at home. However, every day there is no visible change and even more protracted. For this reason, it is necessary to do counseling on the importance of parental involvement in kindergarten institutions in stimulating children's socio-emotional development from an early age. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out community service in the form of counseling. The extension method is in the form of lectures and questions and answers. This community service aims to ensure that teachers always involve parents in educating children, especially in stimulating children's social-emotional development from an early age. So that children can follow the learning process and behave well to teachers and friends while they are at school. As a result of this community service, it is hoped that all parents can train themselves or get used to behaving well in front of children at all times while at home as teachers have been accustomed to while the child is in school.