R. BOER
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Impact of Extreme Climate Events on Rice-Based Farming System : Case Study at Bandung District Elza SURMAINI; R. BOER
Jurnal Tanah dan Iklim (Indonesian Soil and Climate Journal) No 33 (2011): Juli 2011
Publisher : Balai Besar Penelitian dan Pengembangan Sumberdaya Lahan Pertanian

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21082/jti.v0n33.2011.%p

Abstract

Bandung District is found to be an area that is vulnerable to the El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Whenever ENSO occurs, this district is always suffering from drought and flood leading to significant crop production lost. The vulnerable areas to flood and drought are Bojongsoang and Ciparay. The objectives of the study are : a) to identify problems related climate risks in rice-based farming system and the adaptation of mechanism to cope with climate extreme; b) to elucidate relationship of ENSO development with rainfall variability and effect of rainfall to flood and drought occurrences; and c) to evaluate economics loss due to climate extreme. Assessment of farming system at the study sites was conducted using Rapid Rural Appraisal (RRA) method. Farmer’s annual income were analyzed using frequency analysis of gross margin. The results showed that Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in Tropical Pacific has significantly affected on rainfall in Ciparay sub-District. The raise in SST anomaly is clearly a subject to delay the rainy season, to prolong the dry season period, and to decrease rainfall amount up to below normal, while the decreasing of SST anomaly resulting high intensity of rainfall in the rainy season and lower in the dry season. Whenever ENSO occurs, most farmers is always suffering from drought and flood leading to significant crop failure. Most farmers realized that climate has been changed and recently there is a trend uncertainly of rainfall pattern (proved by 84% of respondents). Nevertheless, they are still using traditional way to determine the beginning of planting season. Results showed that Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) have smaller value in floods and droughts than normal conditions. Annual net income analysis suggests that many farmers will have negative annual income either at first or second crops fail. Based on the interviews with local authorities and farmers, it is needed to increase awareness of decision maker, extension workers and farmers to climate extremes and to improve their capacity to manage climate risks.
Analysis of Environmental Quality Changes of Citarum Watershed of West Java and their Effects on Operational Costs of Hydroelectric Power Plans and the Regional Drinking Water Companies (Case Study at Saguling, Cirata, and Jatiluhur Hydroelectric Power Pl RADJAB TAMPUBOLON; B. SANIM; M. SRI SAENI; R. BOER
Jurnal Tanah dan Iklim (Indonesian Soil and Climate Journal) No 26 (2007): Desember 2007
Publisher : Balai Besar Penelitian dan Pengembangan Sumberdaya Lahan Pertanian

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21082/jti.v0n26.2007.%p

Abstract

The objectives of this research were to analyze land cover changes, hydrological characteristics changes, and their effects on the economic value of water resources for environmental services beneficiaries (Hydroelectric Power Plan, HEPP and Drinking Water Companies, DWC). This research was conducted from January to December 2006 in the upper Citarum watershed, covering the Saguling, Cirata, and Jatiluhur catchments, with total area of 486,237 ha. The economic actors under this study are Saguling HEPP, Cirata HEPP, and Jatiluhur HEPP as well asTirta Dharma DWC (Purwakarta) and PT Thames Jaya DWC (Jakarta) which are located downstream of Citarum watershed as the beneficiaries of environmental services of Citarum watershed. The methodology and analysis technique used in this research were : a) supervised classification analysis to find out land cover changes; b) GR4J model to predict water discharge, water volume, and sedimentation; and c) water chemical analysis and replacement cost method for economic valuation of environmental services among the beneficiaries (HEPP, DWC). The resultsshowed that during the 1992 to 2002 period, there has been a reduction of forest (tree) area at the rate of 2.23% (3,804.2 ha) annually. The reduction of forest area was mainly caused by increasing of land clearing for settlement and other infrastructure which grew at the rate of 9.81% (2,404.5 ha) annually. This landuse change has influenced on hydrological characteristics of the upper Citarum watershed as shown by the reduction of local water discharge as high as 1.49% (3.14 m3 sec-1) and the volume of local water input as high as 4.20% (275.26 million m3), the increasing ratio of Qmax/Qmin as high as 5.99% (at the average of 131.94), the increasing of sediment yield as high as 10.20 to 12.86 million m3 annually (for the three dams) which is very dangerous, especially for Saguling and Cirata dams, as well as the decreasing of chemical water quality of Citarum River. Landuse and hydrological characteristics changes has caused an economic loss (opportunity cost) among the HEPPs and DWCs. The amount of the opportunity cost due to environmentaldegradation of upper Citarum watershed suffered by the HEPPs was as high as Rp 43.44 billion (equivalent with Rp 9,538,- MWh-1 electricity or Rp 3.29 m-3 water used by HEPP). Whereas economic lost suffered by DWC were Rp 212.43,- m-3 (Purwakarta DWC) and Rp 821.48 m-3 (Jakarta DWC) respectively. Based on significant economic loss caused byenvironmental degradation of the upper Citarum watershed on HEPP and DWC, the efforts for controlling landuse allocation and soil conservation seem very necessarily, by assigning permanent forest cover area. The amount as reflected by opportunity cost could be used as environmental investment for improving environmental quality (replacement cost) in the upper Citarum watershed.
Forecasting Model of Rice Production Using Weighted Rainfall Index in Subang, Karawang, and Indramayu Regency . SUTIKNO; R. BOER; A. BEY; K. ANWAR NOTODIPUTRO; I. LAS
Jurnal Tanah dan Iklim (Indonesian Soil and Climate Journal) No 32 (2010): Desember 2010
Publisher : Balai Besar Penelitian dan Pengembangan Sumberdaya Lahan Pertanian

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21082/jti.v0n32.2010.%p

Abstract

Various forcasting models of rice production have been developed to support national food security. The forecasting models of national production which use recently have been carried out by the BPS and have not include the climate factors. Whereas, the climate factors influenced the rice’s production. The aim of this research is to develop the harvest area model using independent variables : Weighted Rainfall Index (WRI), SeaSurface Temperature (SST) Nino 3.4, and Dipole Mode Index (DMI). The models which developed was based on BPS models which consist of 3 periods. There are period 1 (January-April), period 2 (May-August), period 3 (September-December).  Furthermore, rice production forecasting is the multiplication of harvest area and yield per ha. Rice production forecasting in one year is sum of the 3 periods. The research location are pantura areas, namely Karawang, Subang, and Indramayu. The result of the research showed that the model performance by WRI for period 2 (May-August) is better than period 1 and period 3. The mean of error for harvest area forecasting for periode 1, 2, and 3 of WRI variable, respectively is 14, 13, and 47%. Based on model validation, harvest area models by independent variable using WRI, SST Nino 3.4, DMI and ratio of harvest area and standard area, relatively have the same performance. One of the reasons is correlation between SST Nino 3.4 and DMI withrainfall is high. Mean of error for rice’s production forecasting of WRI are 13, 15, and 49%, while SST Nino 3.4, DMI, ratio of harvest area and standard area are 29, 12, and 51%. The range of error rice production forecasting at second year are 10-11%.