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All Journal AKSIOMA JURNAL PENDIDIKAN MATEMATIKA Science and Technology Indonesia Jurnal Siger Matematika PELS (Procedia of Engineering and Life Science) Jurnal Dedikasi untuk Negeri Sciencestatistics: Journal of Statistics, Probability, and Its Application

Mustofa Usman

Universitas Lampung

Author-ID : 4317915

Religion Humanities Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Engineering Environmental Science Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Materials Science & Nanotechnology Mathematics Physics Social Sciences Other

Published : 11 Documents Claim Missing Document

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Peramalan Data Time Series Seasonal Menggunakan Metode Analisis Spektral Anis Mahfud Al’afi; Widiarti Widiarti; Dian Kurniasari; Mustofa Usman
Jurnal Siger Matematika Vol 1, No 1 (2020): Jurnal Siger Matematika
Publisher : FMIPA Universitas Lampung

Air transportation is now a mode of transportation that is often the first choice. Although the transportation costs are relatively expensive, it can save a lot of time to get to the destination. Therefore, predicting the number of aircraft passengers is an interesting thing to study. In this study forecasting the number of aircraft passengers at Raden Intan II Airport using spectral analysis methods. Spectral analysis is used to obtain more complete information about the time series data characteristics to examine the periodicity. After getting the periodicity the data is modeled using the ARIMA Seasonal Method. Based on the analysis results it is known that the best model for forecasting aircraft passengers at Raden Intan II Airport is Seasonal ARIMA (0,1,1) (0,1,1)3

PERAMALAN JUMLAH KLAIM DI BPJS KESEHATAN CABANG METRO MENGGUNAKAN METODE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING Anisa Fitriyani; Mustofa Usman; Muhammad Taufiq Sofrizal; Dian Kurniasari
Jurnal Siger Matematika Vol 3, No 1 (2022): Volume 3 No 1
Publisher : FMIPA Universitas Lampung

Peramalan merupakan suatu proses atau metode dalam meramal suatu peristiwa yang akan terjadi pada masa yang akan datang. Exponensial smoothing adalah suatu metode peramalan rata-rata bergerak yang melakukan pembobotan menurun secara eksponensial terhadap nilai observasi yang lebih lama. Pada penelitian ini membahas tentang metode yang lebih baik dalam peramalan yaitu antara metode double exponential smoothing satu parameter dari Brown dan double exponential smoothing dua parameter dari Holt dalam meramalkan jumlah klaim pasien rawat inap RS Islam Metro yang diajukan ke BPJS Kesehatan cabang Metro. Melalui trial and error dihasilkan untuk double exponential smooting satu parameter dari Brown yaitu α = 0,11dengan nilai MAPE sebesar 19.89. Sedangkan metode double exponential smooting dua parameter dari Holt dengan α = 0,1 dan g= 0.1 menghasilkan nilai MAPE sebesar 19.60, sehingga metode double exponential smooting dua parameter dari Holt menjadi metode terbaik yang digunakan dalam meramalkan jumlah kasus rawat inap RS Islam Metro karena memiliki nilai MAPE yang lebih kecil. Setelah dilakukan peramalan menggunakan metode double exponential smooting dua parameter dari Holtmenghasilkan ramalan jumlah peserta pada bulan Desember 2021 adalah 91 kasus, bulan Januari 2022 adalah 83, bulan Februari 2022 adalah 75, bulan Maret 2022 adalah 68, dan April 2022 adalah 60.Double Exponential Smoothing Dua Parameter dari Holt, Double Exponential Smoothing Satu Parameter dari Brown, MAPE

Analisis Regresi Logistik Biner Terhadap Data Indeks Kedalaman Kemiskinan Di Indonesia Tahun 2020 Regita Elza Fitri; Eri Setiawan; Mustofa Usman; Dorrah Aziz
Jurnal Siger Matematika Vol 3, No 2 (2022): Jurnal Siger Matematika
Publisher : FMIPA Universitas Lampung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.23960/jsm.v3i2.3117

Poverty is a serious problem that occurs in many countries, both developing and developed countries. This issue needs to be addressed by the government, especially in countries with large and dense populations such as Indonesia. Poverty inequality as measured by the poverty depth index shows a number that tends to be stable from year to year. Therefore, it’s necessary know the causal factors that affect the depth of poverty in Indonesia. This study discusses the factors that affect the poverty depth index in Indonesia in 2020 using binary logistic regression analysis to determine the best binary logistic regression model and find out the magnitude of the classification accuracy of what factors affect the poverty depth index in 34 provinces in Indonesia in 2020. This problem can be overcome by using binary logistic regression because the response variable only consists of two categories, namely high and low poverty depth. Based on the analysis, it can be concluded that the open unemployment rate variable and the average expenditure per capita for one month for food have a significant effect on the classification of the poverty depth index in Indonesia 2020.

Enumerating the Number of Connected Vertices Labeled Graph of Order Six with Maximum Ten Loops and Containing No Parallel Edges Wamiliana Wamiliana; Amanto Amanto; Mustofa Usman; Muslim Ansori; Fadila Cahya Puri
Science and Technology Indonesia Vol. 5 No. 4 (2020): October
Publisher : Research Center of Inorganic Materials and Coordination Complexes, FMIPA Universitas Sriwijaya

A Graph G (V, E) is said to be a connected graph if for every two vertices on the graph there exist at least a path connecting them, otherwise, the graph is disconnected. Two edges or more that connect the same pair of vertices are called parallel edges, and an edge that starts and ends at the same vertex is called a loop. A graph is called simple if it containing no loops nor parallel edges. Given n vertices and m edges, m ≥ 1, there are many graphs that can be formed, either connected or disconnected. In this research, we will discuss how to calculate the number of connected vertices labeled graphs of order six (isomorphism graphs are counted as one), with a maximum loop of ten without parallel edges.

MEMBANGUN DESAIN EKSPERIMEN, PEMODELAN DAN ANALISIS DENGAN SAS PROGRAM Mustofa Usman; Widiarti widiarti; Edwin Russel; Noti Ragayu
Jurnal Dedikasi untuk Negeri Vol 1, No 1 (2022)
Publisher : Lembaga Penelitian dan Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat UML

Abstrak Dewasa ini penggunaan statistika dalam analisis data dan penelitian telah secara intensif digunakan, khususnya dikalangan akademisi. Khusus dalam penggunakan perancangan eksperimen pemahaman yang benar tentang pembangunan desain eksperimen dan pemodelan dan analisis datanya yang dirasakan masih kurang dipahami oleh sebagian besar para peneliti. Pengabdian pada masyarakat yang dilakukan ini disampaikan dalam rangka mengatasi kekurangan pemahaman dosen swasta akan pembangunan desain eksperimen dan analisisnya. Metode yang digunakan adalah pemberian kuliah, diskusi dan studi kasus khususnya adalah analisis completely Randomized Desain. Kata kunci: Desain eksperimen, CRD, randomisasi, analisis. Abstract Nowadays, the use of statistics in data analysis and research has been intensively used, especially among academics. Especially in the use of experimental design, a correct understanding of the construction of experimental designs and modeling and data analysis is felt to be still poorly understood by most researchers. This community service is delivered in order to overcome the lack of understanding of private lecturers on the development of experimental designs and their analysis. The method used is giving lectures, discussions and case studies, especially analysis of completely randomized design. Keywords: Experimental design, CRD, randomization, analysis.

IMPLEMENTATION OF DECISION TREE AND SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINE ON RAISIN SEED CLASSIFICATION Wardhani Utami Dewi; Khoirin Nisa; Mustofa Usman
AKSIOMA: Jurnal Program Studi Pendidikan Matematika Vol 12, No 1 (2023)
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS MUHAMMADIYAH METRO

In everyday life there are many complex and global problems, especially in terms of decision making. Machine learning (ML) which is built from the concepts of computer science statistics and mathematics can automatically solve problems without guidance from ordinary users. Decision tree (DT) and support vector machine (SVM) are two supervised learning methods among several classification algorithms in ML. Both algorithms are the most popular classification techniques due to their ability to change a complex decision-making process into a simple process. In this study, the accuracy of the DT and SVM algorithms is studied on classifying raisin seeds into the Besni class and the Kecimen class based on existing features. The raisin data are divided into training and testing data, and the evaluation of the two methods is done using the testing data. The results of the evaluation are compared based on the accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and kappa levels of the DT and SVM algorithms. The results on classifying raisin seeds data show that the SVM algorithm is superior to DT, therefor the number of positive observations is more precise in the prediction.

Pemodelan Dinamis Distributed Lag Dengan Menggunakan Metode Koyck Dan Metode Almon Dora Panny Nurcahaya Sitorus; Widiarti Widiarti; Agus Sutrisno; Mustofa Usman
Jurnal Siger Matematika Vol 4, No 1 (2023): Jurnal Siger Matematika
Publisher : FMIPA Universitas Lampung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.23960/jsm.v4i1.9210

The distributed lag Model is a dynamic model due to the effect of a one-unit change in the value of the distributed independent variable (X) over a period of time. Distributed lag Model there are 2 types, namely: infinite lag model and finite lag model. Infinite lag modeling using koyck method and finite lag modeling using Almon method. This distributed lag Model is used to visualize the impact caused by the independent variable on the dependent variable. This study aims to apply a dynamic model of distributed lag by using the koyck transformation method and Almon transformation method to assess the effect of the rupiah exchange rate on the value of garment exports PT. Shinwon went abroad and determined the best model in Dynamic Modeling of distributed lag using the koyck transformation method and the Almon transformation method. The results showed that dynamic modeling of distributed lag with Almon transformation method is better than koyck transformation.

PM2.5 Concentration Pattern in ASEAN Countries Based on Population Density Achmad Yahya Teguh Panuju; Mustofa Usman
Procedia of Engineering and Life Science Vol 4 (2023): Proceedings of the 6th Seminar Nasional Sains 2023
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Sidoarjo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21070/pels.v4i0.1385

The concentration of PM2.5 in ambient air is one of the indicators of air quality that affects public health. This pollutant is considered hazardous due to its small size, which allows it to enter the lungs and remain suspended in the air for a considerable amount of time. Identifying the patterns of PM2.5 concentration distribution is important to recognize the influential factors in increasing PM2.5 concentrations, thus enabling better formulation of solutions. This study analyzed the patterns of PM2.5 concentrations in three ASEAN countries: Indonesia, Vietnam, and Thailand. Four randomly selected measurement locations were chosen in each country, with two locations in densely populated areas and two others in low-density areas. The sample data of PM2.5 concentrations were analyzed using nested factor analysis of variance, which allowed the relationship between the taken parameters, namely country, location, and population density classification, to be determined. The results revealed that all parameters had a significant influence on PM2.5 concentrations.

Analysis of Linear Log Models on Covid-19 Data in Indonesia Indah Suciati; Warsono Warsono; Mustofa Usman
Sciencestatistics: Journal of Statistics, Probability, and Its Application Vol 1 No 1 (2023): JANUARY
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Metro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Covid-19 is still a concern of the world, including Indonesia. The transmission of Covid-19 is very fast and has a wide impact on all people around the world, especially Indonesia. In everyday life, we find a lot of data that looks into a certain category. Categorical analysis of data can be done using the log linear model. The log linear model is used to analyze the relationship between categorical variables that form a contingency table of arbitrary dimensions. The analysis used in this study is to make descriptive statistics and three-way contingency tables, then perform the analysis with the help of SPSS 25.0 software where the goodness of fit test is used to see which models can be used or suitable. The purpose of this study is to analyze a log linear model, so that a log linear model is obtained that is suitable for Covid-19 data based on gender, province, and age group. The conclusion of this study is that of the 9 models used, the model is the most suitable model to be used, with a value of 18,885 and the equation of the log linear model is , which means that there is a relationship between the two factors for the variables gender and province, gender and age group and province and age group in Covid-19 cases in Covid-19 in Indonesia by gender, province, and age group.

Goodness Of Fit Test In Structural Equation Modeling with Unweighted Least Square (ULS) Estimation Method Ani Amanathi; Eri Setiawan; Mustofa Usman
Sciencestatistics: Journal of Statistics, Probability, and Its Application Vol 1 No 2 (2023): JULY
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Metro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Structural equation model (SEM) is a multivariate analysis method that is used to describe a linear relationship simultaneously between indicator variables and latent variables. There are several estimation methods in SEM, one of them is Unweighted Least Square (ULS). The method doesn‟t have specific assumptions about the distribution of variables. This study aims to estimate the model using the ULS method and see the influence of employee competency variables and library facilities on the quality of service at the University of Lampung library. Survey of quality of service in the library of Lampung University is used in the research. Based on the results of the study, it is found that from the three suitability tests, namely the overall model test, the structural model test and the measurement model test using ULS estimation give good results in explaining the compatibility between the model and observation results.

Co-Authors . Wamiliana Achmad Yahya Teguh Panuju Agus Sutrisno Amanto Amanto Ani Amanathi Anis Mahfud Al’afi Anisa Fitriyani Dian Kurniasari Dora Panny Nurcahaya Sitorus Dorrah Azis Edwin Russel Eri Setiawan Fadila Cahya Puri Indah Suciati Khoirin Nisa Muhammad Taufiq Sofrizal Muslim Ansori Noti Ragayu Regita Elza Fitri Wardhani Utami Dewi Warsono Warsono Widiarti Widiarti

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