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All Journal Techno.Com: Jurnal Teknologi Informasi Jurnal Buana Informatika Jurnal Informatika JUITA : Jurnal Informatika Jurnas Nasional Teknologi dan Sistem Informasi Edu Komputika Journal Sistemasi: Jurnal Sistem Informasi Jurnal RESTI (Rekayasa Sistem dan Teknologi Informasi) Computatio : Journal of Computer Science and Information Systems JTERA (Jurnal Teknologi Rekayasa) Jurnal Sains dan Informatika INOVTEK Polbeng - Seri Informatika Matrix : Jurnal Manajemen Teknologi dan Informatika SINTECH (Science and Information Technology) Journal Jurnal Teknoinfo Jurnal Sisfokom (Sistem Informasi dan Komputer) KACANEGARA Jurnal Pengabdian pada Masyarakat Jurnal Riset Informatika JIPI (Jurnal Ilmiah Penelitian dan Pembelajaran Informatika) JTT (Jurnal Teknologi Terapan) JASIEK (Jurnal Aplikasi Sains, Informasi, Elektronika dan Komputer) JISKa (Jurnal Informatika Sunan Kalijaga) JTIM : Jurnal Teknologi Informasi dan Multimedia Jurnal JTIK (Jurnal Teknologi Informasi dan Komunikasi) JUSTINDO (Jurnal Sistem dan Teknologi Informasi Indonesia) JISA (Jurnal Informatika dan Sains) Jurnal FASILKOM (teknologi inFormASi dan ILmu KOMputer) Jurnal Indonesia : Manajemen Informatika dan Komunikasi SmartComp Jurnal Indonesia : Manajemen Informatika dan Komunikasi
Donny Avianto
Universitas Teknologi Yogyakarta
Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Engineering Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Library & Information Science Mathematics Mechanical Engineering

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Journal : JISA (Jurnal Informatika dan Sains)

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Global Horizontal Irradiance Prediction using the Algorithm of Moving Average and Exponential Smoothing Alfin Syarifuddin Syahab; Arief Hermawan; Donny Avianto
JISA(Jurnal Informatika dan Sains) Vol 6, No 1 (2023): JISA(Jurnal Informatika dan Sains)
Publisher : Universitas Trilogi

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31326/jisa.v6i1.1649

Abstract

To reduce the discrepancy between the results of the expected data and the actual data, prediction is a procedure that is calculated systematically based on owned historical and present information. For the creation of solar energy projects and for decision-making in other connected domains, solar radiation intensity prediction is essential. This study aims to create a predictive model on monthly global horizontal irradiance data. The method used is the Simple Moving Average algorithm, Exponentially Weighted Moving Average and Single Exponential Smoothing. The stages carried out in this study include data collection, data preprocessing, testing of predictive models, interpretation of data visualization, and performance evaluation. The results of calculating the error value and correlation produce an evaluation of the performance of the prediction model. The SES method, which obtained an MAE value of 7.13, a MAPE of 0.02%, an MSE of 88.07, an RMSE of 9.38, and an R2 of 0.94, was determined to be the best prediction model by the calculation of the prediction model performance evaluation. A MAE value of 9.45, a MAPE of 0.02%, an MSE of 150.16, an RMSE of 12.25, and an R2 of 0.91 were obtained by the EWMA method, which is also the method that produced the second-best result. A MAE value of 14.38, a MAPE of 0.04%, an MSE of 367.59, an RMSE of 19.17, and an R2 of 0.77 were obtained by the SMA method, which is the third-best result.
Co-Authors Adityo Permana Wibowo Alfin Syarifuddin Syahab Amalia Rizki Wulandari Aribowo Aribowo Arief Hermawan Arieska Restu Harpian Dwika Aziz Perdana Baiq Nurul Azmi Bowo Hirwono Dwi Ratnawati, Dwi Edi Priyanto Ferdinandus Edwin Penalun Herdy Andriksen Ilmy Eka Handayani Imantoko Imantoko Kusumastuti, Asriana Dyah Muh Arifandi Muhammad Irsyad Indra Fata Muhammad Rizki Nasmah Nur Amiroh Nazar Iqbal Bimantoro Nur Widiastuti Oktavia Hardiyantari Panji Rangga Adzan Fajar Fakharudin Rian Oktafiani Rianto Rianto Rizky Samudra Falasyfa Roy Fasti Rubangi Rubangi Rudi, Rudiono Rudiono Rudi Rusma Eko Fiddy Rizarta Siti Nurazila Soraya Fatmawati Tri Widodo Vivianti