Soenardi Soenardi, Soenardi
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PERFORMA KONVERGENSI ANGIN PERMUKAAN DIURNAL MODEL REANALISIS ERA5 DI BENUA MARITIM INDONESIA Rais, Achmad Fahruddin; Soenardi, Soenardi; Fanani, Zubaidi; Surgiansyah, Pebri
Jurnal Sains & Teknologi Modifikasi Cuaca Vol 20, No 2 (2019): December 2019
Publisher : BPPT

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (1991.715 KB) | DOI: 10.29122/jstmc.v20i2.3795

Abstract

IntisariPada penelitian ini, penulis mengkaji uji performa kualitatif konvergensi angin permukaan model reanalisis ERA5 di BMI yang dibandingkan dengan hasil penelitian menggunakan limited area model (LAM) oleh Qian, Im dan Eltahir serta Alfahmi et al. Konvergensi angin permukaan dan anomali angin permukaan dihitung dengan menggunakan finite difference.  Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa model reanalisis ERA5 mampu mensimulasikan konvergensi anomali angin permukaan dengan baik terhadap model regional climate model (RegCM) maupun The MIT regional climate model (MRCM) resolusi 27 km di Pulau Jawa dan sekitarnya serta BMI bagian barat dengan nilai konvergensi yang lebih tinggi. Sedangkan terhadap model weather research forecast (WRF) 9 km di BMI bagian timur, model reanalisis ERA5 juga dapat mensimulasikan konvergensi angin permukaan, tetapi dengan nilai yang lebih rendah. Selain itu, model reanalisis ERA5 mensimulasikan konvergensi angin permukaan lebih cepat 2 jam di BMI bagian barat dan timur dibandingkan MRCM27 dan WRF. AbstractIn this study, we discuss the qualitative performance testing of ERA5 surface wind convergence over the Indonesia maritime continent (BMI) compared with research based on limited area model (LAM) by Qian, Im, and Eltahir and also Alfahmi et al. Wind surface convergence and wind surface anomalies convergence is calculated using finite-difference. The results show that the ERA5 reanalysis model can simulate convergence of surface wind anomalies compared with both regional climate model (RegCM) and 27 km MIT regional climate model (MRCM) over Java and also western BMI with higher convergence values. While ERA5 reanalysis model can also simulate convergence of surface winds, but with lower values compared to 9 km weather research forecast (WRF) model over eastern BMI. Besides, the ERA5 reanalysis model simulates convergence of surface winds, which is 2 hours faster over western and eastern BMI compared to MRCM27 and WRF.
PREDICTION OF CUMULONIMBUS (CB) CLOUD BASED ON INTEGRATED FORECAST SYSTEM (IFS) OF EUROPEAN MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECAST (ECMWF) IN THE FLIGHT INFORMATION REGION (FIR) OF JAKARTA AND UJUNG PANDANG Rais, Achmad Fahruddin; Setiawan, Fani; Yunita, Rezky; Meinovelia, Erika; Soenardi, Soenardi; Fadli, Muhammad; Wijayanto, Bambang
Jurnal Sains & Teknologi Modifikasi Cuaca Vol. 21 No. 2 (2020): December 2020
Publisher : BPPT

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29122/jstmc.v21i2.4100

Abstract

This study was focused on cumulonimbus (Cb) cloud prediction based on Integrated Forecast System (IFS) European Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) model in the Flight Information Region (FIRs) Jakarta and Ujung Pandang. The Cb cloud prediction was calculated using convective cloud cover (CC) of the precipitation product. The model predictability was examined through categorical verification. The Cb cloud observation was based on brightness temperature (BT) IR1 and brightness temperature difference (BTD) IR1-IR2. The results showed that CC 50%' predictor was the best predictor to estimate the Cb cloud. The study in the period other than 2019 is suggested for the next research because Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is extreme that may affect the Cb cloud growth in the study area.