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All Journal Journal of Applied Science, Engineering, Technology, and Education JINAV: Journal of Information and Visualization Daengku: Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences Innovation ARRUS Journal of Mathematics and Applied Science
Miguel Botto-Tobar
(1) Eindhoven University of Technology, 5600 MB Eindhoven, The Netherlands; (2) Research Group in Artificial Intelligence and Information Technology, University of Guayaquil, 090510, Guayaquil, Ecuador
Humanities Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemistry Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Engineering Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Library & Information Science Mathematics Physics Other

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Journal : JINAV: Journal of Information and Visualization

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Forecasting the Value of Oil and Gas Exports in Indonesia using ARIMA Box-Jenkins Ansari Saleh Ahmar; Miguel Botto-Tobar; Abdul Rahman; Rahmat Hidayat
JINAV: Journal of Information and Visualization Vol. 3 No. 1 (2022)
Publisher : PT Mattawang Mediatama Solution

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35877/454RI.jinav260

Abstract

The objective of the study was to forecast the value of oil and gas exports in Indonesia using the ARIMA Box-Jenkins. With this prediction, it is hoped that it can be a study for future policy making. This oil and gas export data is obtained from the Indonesian Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) website, in raw data from January 2010 to March 2022. This data is predicted using the ARIMA method with the help of R software. The stages of data analysis with ARIMA include: data stationary test, build the model indication, parameter estimation and significance test, and residual diagnostic test of the model. The results of data analysis conducted in this study show that there are 3 indications of models that were generated, namely ARIMA(1,1,0); ARIMA(0,1,1); and ARIMA(1,1,0). From these 3 model indications, the best model was ARIMA(0,1,1) with AIC value of 2047.65.
Co-Authors Ahmar, Ansari Saleh Angela Diaz Cadena R. Rusli Rahman, Abdul Rahmat Hidayat Ruliana Sitti Masyitah Meliyana R. Taufiq Hidayat Zulkifli Rais