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All Journal Prosiding Seminar Nasional Official Statistics PROCEEDINGS OF THE INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON DATA SCIENCE AND OFFICIAL STATISTICS
Adin Nugroho
Badan Pusat Statistik
Humanities Computer Science & IT Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences

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Analisis Fenomena Harga Minyak Goreng di Indonesia dan Dampaknya terhadap Sektor Penyediaan Makan Minum Adin Nugroho; Prientananda Ghina Salsabila
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2022 No 1 (2022): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2022
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (435.303 KB) | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2022i1.1209

Abstract

The increase in global CPO prices had pushed up the prices of its derivative products, including cooking oil that has been one of the basic need of Indonesian people. The increase in cooking oil prices at the end of 2021 to June 2022 that reached 25.400 rupiahs might certainly have impact on sectors that were directly related to it, such as the food and beverages service activities. Therefore, this study was conducted to analyze the factors that influenced the increasing cooking oil prices and its impact on the food and beverage supply sector. This research used data of cooking oil price, CPO production, CPO consumption, CPO export, CPO price, and CPI of food and beverage in Indonesia with the period of Januari 2020 – June 2022. The methods that were used in this research included Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Analisis Faktor, dan Autoregressive Distirbuted Lag (ARDL). In the result of this study, it was shown that supply and demand factors had a significant influence toward the changes in cooking oil prices not in the current period, but in the following period instead. On the other hand the increasing cooking oil prices, which was included in market pressure factor, had a 0,723 units significant and parallel impact on the changes of Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Food and Beverage Service Activities in the same period.
Study of Exchange Rate Volatility and Its Effect on Indonesian Economic Indicators With Potential Exchange Rate Crisis Adin Nugroho; Nasrudin Nasrudin
Proceedings of The International Conference on Data Science and Official Statistics Vol. 2021 No. 1 (2021): Proceedings of 2021 International Conference on Data Science and Official St
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/icdsos.v2021i1.108

Abstract

Exchange rate volatility occurred when exchange rate movement was wildly fluctuating which could depict uncertainty. Since Indonesia used an open economy, exchange rate fluctuation became important to be maintained due to crisis potential. This research was conducted to analyze the effect or impact of exchange rate volatility on the Indonesian economy in general and few related case using time series analysis. ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) and EGARCH (Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) were used for measuring the volatility in the period between 1997-2021. Then, regressions were applied to analyze the impact of exchange rate volatility on few macroeconomic indicators. The result shows that exchange rate volatility yielded a significant negative effect on GDP Growth rate, export, and import. Logistic regression was used to analyze the factors that were affecting the crisis potential. The result showed only a negative GDP growth rate and high volatility that gave more risk which could lead to crisis. Therefore, it is important to keep exchange rate volatility stable.
Co-Authors Nasrudin Prientananda Ghina Salsabila