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All Journal Indonesian Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science
Goklas Henry Agus Panjaitan
Institut Teknologi Del

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Sales forecasting of marketing using adaptive response rate single exponential smoothing algorithm Tegar Arifin Prasetyo; Evan Richardo Sianipar; Poibe Leny Naomi; Ester Saulina Hutabarat; Rudy Chandra; Wesly Mailander Siagian; Goklas Henry Agus Panjaitan
Indonesian Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science Vol 31, No 1: July 2023
Publisher : Institute of Advanced Engineering and Science

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.11591/ijeecs.v31.i1.pp423-432

Abstract

Micro, small and medium enterprises (UMKM) is one of the important aspects to support the improvement of the economy in Indonesia. Zee Mart’s business is one of the UMKM shop in Pematang Siantar City with sales and purchase transaction activities for supplies. The purpose of this study is to predict the sales of Zee Mart store goods in the coming month using the adaptive response rate single exponential smoothing (ARRSES) method. ARRSES is a method with the advantage of having two parameters, alpha and beta, where alpha will change every period when the data pattern changes. The dataset obtained will be pre-processed through data selection, cleaning, and transformation. The best beta is determined based on the level of accuracy calculated using the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Model development using the ARRSES method will produce forecasting percentages and errors for each product using MAPE. The number of sales data is 23,092 before preprocessing and 23,021 after pre-processing, with the total quantity of goods sold being 149,764 of 1,492 products. The results obtained using sales data 23,021 show the lowest MAPE value of 9.85 at the best beta of 0.6 with the highest accuracy of 90.15% and the model is implemented into a web interface.
Co-Authors Ester Saulina Hutabarat Evan Richardo Sianipar Poibe Leny Naomi Prasetyo, Tegar Arifin Rudy Chandra SIAGIAN, WESLY MAILANDER