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Rainfall Forecasting in Makassar City Using Triple Exponential Smoothing Method Irwan Irwan; Muhammad Abdy; Ersa Karwingsi; Ansari Saleh Ahmar
ARRUS Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities Vol. 3 No. 1 (2023)
Publisher : Lembaga Penelitian dan Pengembangan Teknologi dan Rekayasa, Yayasan Ahmar Cendekia Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35877/soshum1707

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to determine the appropriate forecasting method for predicting rainfall in Makassar City in 2022. This research is based on the problems that are often experienced by the people of Makassar City, namely the occurrence of flooding which results in traffic jams due to high x rainfall which continuously occurs. for several days in a row. With this research, people can see the prediction of rainfall and anticipate flooding in Makassar City. The results of the Makassar city rainfall data plot experience increases and decreases (fluctuations), which tend to repeat every year. This shows that Makassar City's rainfall contains seasonal factors. Therefore the method used is one-parameter Brown triple exponential smoothing, three-parameter Holt-Winters additive and Holt-Winters multiplicative. The forecasting results show that the correct method to use is the Holt-Winters multiplicative method with a parameter value of a=0.001 β=0.15 γ=0.002 which produces a minimum value of MAPE = 1.18 MAD = 136.23 compared to the Brown and Holt-Winters methods additive. Forecasting results using the Holt-Winters multiplicative method show that the highest rainfall occurs from December to April 2022.
The Implementation of Spatial Model with K-Means Clustering Method to Cluster Flood Affected Areas in Bone Regency Irwan Irwan; Wahidah Sanusi; Adil Saputra Anwar; Abdul Rahman
ARRUS Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities Vol. 3 No. 2 (2023)
Publisher : PT ARRUS Intelektual Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35877/soshum1771

Abstract

This research is an applied research that aims to determine the clusters of areas affected by floods in bone regency. This study user the K-means method in clustering flood data in 2020 and 2021. The data is grouped based on the number of families affected and the resulting damage. In determining the number of clusters to be used, this study validated 3, 4 and 5 clusters using the davis bouldin index (DBI) validation in determining the best cluster. The results of this validation resulted in the best number of clusters, namely k=4 for 2020 data with a minimum DBI of 0,73 and k=4 for 2021 data with a minimum DBI of 0,44. After clustering, the cluster number for data for 2020 from the firs to fourth cluster member are 34, 7, 2 and 3 sequentially, while the data for years 2021 sequentially are 3, 22, 3 and 1. Then the cluster results are displayed in a spatial form that is created using ArcGIS.
Analysis of Stock Portfolio Optimization in the Telecommunications Sector Using the Single Index Model Irwan Irwan; Muhammad Abdy; Nurul Khofifah Salsabila; Ansari Saleh Ahmar
ARRUS Journal of Mathematics and Applied Science Vol. 3 No. 1 (2023)
Publisher : PT ARRUS Intelektual Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35877/mathscience1734

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to determine the optimal portfolio in the telecommunications sector listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange based on the Jakarta Composite Index for the period January 2018–December 2020 using the Single Index Model. This type of research is an applied research. This type of research is applied research with secondary data obtained from the Indonesia Stock Exchange, Yahoo Finance, and Bank Indonesia. The number of samples taken is 5 stocks, namely TLKM, ISAT, EXCL, BTEL, and FREN. Based on the results of the analysis of the 5 stocks that are members of the JCI, the combination of 2 stocks that make up the optimal portfolio, namely ISAT and FREN, produces an expected return of 5.08% with a risk of 8.02%.
Pelatihan Software R Bagi Dosen Universitas Al-Syariah Mandar Suwardi Annas; Muhammad Nusrang; Irwan Irwan; Zulkifli Rais; Ruliana Ruliana
Panrannuangku Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Vol. 3 No. 1 (2023)
Publisher : Lembaga Penelitian dan Pengembangan Teknologi dan Rekayasa, Yayasan Ahmar Cendekia Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35877/panrannuangku1810

Abstract

This Community Partnership Program (PKM) partner is a lecturer at FKIP Al-Syariah Mandar University. The problems are: (1) R as an open source software that is free of the license is not widely known in scope, (2) Lack of skills in statistical data analysis mainly related to regression analysis, path analysis, and SEM using R. The methods used are lectures, demonstrations, discussions, questions and answers, and co-partners. The results achieved are (1) partners have R software knowledge related to downloading and installing the software, (2) partners have superior knowledge possessed by the R package, (3) partners have knowledge and ability to analyze data related to path analysis and SEM analysis with using R.
Transforming Elementary School Children's Interest in Reading in Jompie Village Through the LINE (Infinite Literacy) Program: Transformasi Minat Baca Anak-anak Sekolah Dasar di Desa Jompie Melalui Program LINE (Literasi Infinite) Ja’faruddin Ja’faruddin; Irwan Irwan; Zaidulkhair Hamzi; Sukmawati Sukmawati; Muhammad Yusri
Mattawang: Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Vol. 5 No. 1 (2024)
Publisher : Yayasan Ahmar Cendekia Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35877/454RI.mattawang2571

Abstract

Reading is an act that opens the door to knowledge and new information for individuals. However, the interest in reading in Indonesia has a concerning record. Indonesia ranks 60th out of 61 countries in the reading interest index. UNESCO data shows that only 0.001% of Indonesia's population actively reads. Factors such as the lack of school libraries, limited budgets, and the impact of technology have contributed to the low reading interest, especially among students. The LINE Program is an initiative by the UNM 2023 KKNT team aimed at increasing the reading interest of elementary school children in Jompie Village. This program uses participatory observation methods to understand children's interaction with books and literacy. The LINE program has successfully achieved positive results. Children's reading interest has increased, they have developed reading skills, taken the initiative to read independently, expanded their vocabulary, and gained a deeper understanding. This program also promotes lifelong learning. The LINE program has transformed children into diligent and initiative readers, providing long-term benefits in their literacy and education development. In efforts to increase reading interest in Indonesia, initiatives like this are crucial to be implemented nationwide. Abstrak Membaca merupakan tindakan yang membuka pintu pengetahuan dan informasi baru bagi individu. Namun, minat membaca di Indonesia memiliki catatan yang mengkhawatirkan. Indonesia menduduki peringkat ke-60 dari 61 negara dalam indeks minat membaca. Data UNESCO menunjukkan bahwa hanya 0,001% dari penduduk Indonesia yang aktif membaca. Faktor-faktor seperti kurangnya perpustakaan sekolah, anggaran terbatas, dan dampak teknologi telah berkontribusi pada rendahnya minat baca, terutama di kalangan siswa. Program LINE adalah inisiatif tim KKNT UNM 2023 yang bertujuan untuk meningkatkan minat baca anak-anak sekolah dasar di Desa Jompie. Program ini menggunakan metode observasi partisipatif untuk memahami interaksi anak-anak dengan buku dan literasi. Program LINE telah berhasil mencapai hasil positif. Minat baca anak-anak telah meningkat, mereka telah mengembangkan keterampilan membaca, mengambil inisiatif membaca mandiri, meningkatkan kosakata, dan mendapatkan pemahaman yang lebih mendalam. Program ini juga mendorong pembelajaran seumur hidup. Program LINE telah mengubah anak-anak menjadi pembaca rajin dan inisiatif, memberikan manfaat jangka panjang dalam perkembangan literasi dan pendidikan mereka. Dalam upaya meningkatkan minat baca di Indonesia, inisiatif seperti ini sangat penting untuk diterapkan di seluruh negeri.