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All Journal Jurnal Agrotek UMMat BERDAYA: Jurnal Pendidikan dan Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Jurnal Agribisnis Jurnal Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat Nusantara Agrimansion: Agribusiness Management & Extension Agrifo: Jurnal Agribisnis Universitas Malikussaleh
Baiq Rika Ayu Febrilia
Universitas Mataram
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Humanities Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Environmental Science Public Health Social Sciences

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Journal : Jurnal Agrotek UMMat

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Tomato plant production in NTB per year using Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) Method Dwi Noorma Putri; Baiq Rika Ayu Febrilia; Dara Puspita Anggraeni
Jurnal Agrotek Ummat Vol 10, No 4 (2023): Jurnal Agrotek Ummat
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31764/jau.v10i4.19244

Abstract

Tomatoes are one of the horticultural crops that many people use for consumption in everyday life. Because tThe demand for tomatoes is quite large, but sometimes the availability is too little or too much, it is necessary to study the changing trends or movements in tomato production each year. This research aims to predict tomato plant production in West Nusa Tenggara (NTB) Province, using the Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) method by observing several α values. The best α value is selected by looking at the smallest MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentation Error), MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation) and MES (Mean Square Error).Those value values  is considered to give the best model.The data was taken from BPS from year 2011 to 2022This research aims to predict tomato plant production in West Nusa Tenggara (NTB) Province using the Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) method by observing several α values. The research object taken in this research is data on the number of tomato plant production from 2011 to 2022 in West Nusa Tenggara (NTB) Province. The research object taken in this research is data on the number of tomato plant production from 2011 to 2022 in West Nusa Tenggara (NTB) Province.  Data was analyzed manually using Microsoft Excel. The best α value is selected by looking at the smallest MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentation Error), MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation) and MES (Mean Square Error) values. The research results show that the value α =0,1 is the α value with the smallest MAPE, MAD and MES values. Therefore, for tomato production data from 2011 to 2022 in NTB Province, the best forecasting model using the SES method is given by α =0,1.
Co-Authors Abdullah Usman Anna Apriana Hidayanti Dara Puspita Anggraeni Dudi Septiadi Dwi Noorma Putri Eka Nurminda Dewi Mandalika I Gusti Lanang Parta Tanaya Idiatul Fitri Danasari Nabilah, Sharfina Ni Made Wirastika Sari, Ni Made Wirastika Ni Putu Sephia Ananda Vijaya Rifani Nur Sindy Setiawan Salman Murod Maulana Sri Mulyawati Wirajaya Kusuma