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Journal : Jurnal Bulletin

PENGARUH VARIABEL EKONOMI MAKRO DAN INDEKS HARGA SAHAM DUNIA TERHADAP JAKARTA ISLAMIC INDEX Basuki, Agus Tri; Yusuf, A. Indriyani
Jurnal Bulletin Vol 16, No 1 (2018): April
Publisher : Buletin Ekonomi Manajemen, Ekonomi Pembangunan, Akuntansi

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Effect of Macroeconomic Variables and World Stock Price Index on the Jakarta Islamic Index. The purpose of this research is to find out the influence of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index, Nikkei 225 (N225), Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SSECI), exchange rate (Rupiah to Dollar) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to Jakarta Islamic Index (JII). This research uses Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) in analyzing data or variables. VECM is a derivative method of VAR. The assumptions that must be met in this VECM model are the same as those in the VAR model. The findings of this study are that DJIA has a negative and significant effect on JII as a shock absorber in the short and long term. N225 has a positive and significant effect on JII in the short and long term. SSECI in the short term does not affect the movement of JII. While in long term SSECI have negative and significant influence to JII. KURS in the short term have a positive and significant effect on JII. While in the long term KURS does not affect JII. GDP in the short term has a positive and significant impact on JII. While in the long run the GDP does not affect the movement of JII
PENGARUH VARIABEL EKONOMI MAKRO TERHADAP PERDAGANGAN INDONESIA (PENDEKATAN VECM) Basuki, Agus Tri; Prawoto, Nano Prawoto
Jurnal Bulletin Vol 16, No 2 (2018): Desember
Publisher : Buletin Ekonomi Manajemen, Ekonomi Pembangunan, Akuntansi

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Abstract: Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on Indonesian Trade (VECM Approach). This study aims to analyze the influence of industrial value added and macroeconomic variables on Indonesia's trade in the face of World Free Trade. The model used in the research is the VECM model (or Vector Error Correction Model), a derivative method from VAR. The results of the study show that in the short term and long term trade has a significant effect on trade itself, then there are four independent variables that have a significant effect on trade. The four independent variables, namely last year's gross domestic income, Gross Fixed Capital Formation last year, the exchange rate and industrial value added last year. Abstrak: Pengaruh Variabel Ekonomi Makro Terhadap Perdagangan Indonesia (Pendekatan VECM). Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh nilai tambah industri dan variabel ekonomi makro terhadap perdagangan Indonesia dalam menghadapi Perdagangan Bebas Dunia. Model yang digunakan dalam penelitian adalah model VECM (atau Vector Error Correction Model) merupakan metode turunan dari VAR. Hasil penelitian menunjukan dalam jangka pendek  dan jangka panjang perdagangan berpengaruh signifikan terhadap perdagangan itu sendiri, kemudian terdapat empat variabel independen yang berpengaruh signifikan terhadap perdagangan. Keempat variabel independen tersebut yaitu pendapatan domestic bruto tahun lalu, Gross Fixed Capital Formation  tahun lalu, kurs dan nilai tambah industri pada tahun lalu. Kata Kunci: Perdangangan Internasional, Model Dinamik dan                      Pertumbuhan Ekonomi