JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika)
Vol 6, No 1 (2022): January

Prediction Active Case of Covid-19 with ERNN

Winda Aprianti (Information Technology, Politeknik Negeri Tanah Laut)
Jaka Permadi (Information Technology, Politeknik Negeri Tanah Laut)
Herfia Rhomadhona (Information Technology, Politeknik Negeri Tanah Laut)



Article Info

Publish Date
22 Jan 2022

Abstract

SARS-CoV-2 is known as Covid-19 has been spread in all world since end of 2019. Indonesia, including South Kalimantan has detected first Covid-19 in March 2020. This pandemic has affected in all entirely live in Indonesia. This makes Covid-19 be the main focus of the government. The government has provided aid and imposed restrictions on activities. These policies require planning that can be a solution. Careful planning requires an overview of the data on active cases that are positive for Covid-19. This overview can be obtained through prediction. In this research, Elman Recurrent Neural Network (ERNN) was used to predict active cases of Covid-19. Architecture of ERNN was used ERNN with 3 input nodes, 2 hidden nodes, and 2 context nodes. The data used is 277 data, which is then divided into training data and testing data, respectively 90%-10%, 80%-20%, and 70%-30%. ERNN with a learning rate of 0.1 until 0.9 is applied to data on active cases of Covid-19, then Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is calculated to find out performance of model generated by ERNN. The results showed that all of MAPE were below 10% with the smallest MAPE as 3.21% for scenario 90:10 and learning rate 0.6. MAPE value which is less than 10% indicates that ERNN has very good predictive ability. 

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Journal Info

Abbrev

jtam

Publisher

Subject

Mathematics

Description

Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika (JTAM) dikelola oleh Program Studi Pendidikan Matematika FKIP Universitas Muhammadiyah Mataram dengan ISSN (Cetak) 2597-7512 dan ISSN (Online) 2614-1175. Tim Redaksi menerima hasil penelitian, pemikiran, dan kajian tentang (1) Pengembangan metode atau model ...