JEJAK
Vol 14, No 1 (2021): March 2021

Dynamic Forecasting of Government Foreign Debt: Case of Indonesia

Yozi Aulia Rahman (Universitas Negeri Semarang)
Amin Pujiati (Universitas Negeri Semarang)

Article Info

Publish Date
04 Apr 2021

Abstract

This study aims to forecast the value of the Indonesian government foreign debt in 2020-2024. The secondary data of time series during the period of 2010-2019 on Indonesian government foreign debt are used as the basis of forecasting for the next five years by using ARIMA (Autogressive Integrated Moving Average). The results show that the selected ARIMA models for forecasting are ARIMA (3,1,3) after the unit root test is carried out and 16 ARIMA models are tested. The value of government foreign debt is predicted to keep increasing from 2020 to 2024 amounted to USD 253.01. Then, compared to government debt in January 2010, within 11 years, government foreign  debt is predicted to rise by 169.6%.

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Journal Info
JEJAK
Website

Abbrev

jejak

Publisher

Universitas Negeri Semarang

Subject

Economics, Econometrics & Finance

Description

JEJAK: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan p-ISSN 1979-715X | e-ISSN 2460-5123 is a scientific journal that contains the results of research and theoretical studies in the field of economic development, especially on matters of economic policy in Indonesia was published by the Department of Economic ...