Jurnal Varian
Vol 5 No 2 (2022)

Forcasting Stock Price PT. Indonesian Telecomunication with ARCH-GARCH Model

Wahidah Alwi (Universitas Islam Negeri Alauddin Makassar)
Aprilia Pratiwi S (Universitas Islam Negeri Alauddin Makassar)
Ilham Syata (Universitas Islam Negeri Alauddin Makassar)



Article Info

Publish Date
26 Apr 2022

Abstract

This research discusses the modeling of time series using R software, focusing on forecasting the stock price of PT. Indonesian telecommunications with ARCH-GARCH model. The data used daily closing data on stock prices from January 6, 2020, to January 6, 2021 was obtained from the website www.finance.yahoo.com. The goal is to find out the best model arch-garch on PT. Indonesian telecommunications to find out the results of stock price forecasting the next day using the ARCH-GARCH model. The best model was ARIMA (2,1,3). The results of the ARCH-LM test showed the data contained heteroskedasticity effects or ARCH elements. The research models proposed in this study are ARCH (1) and ARCH-GARCH (1,1). The smallest AIC and BIC values of these two models are ARCH-GARCH (1,1) which is the best model for forecasting the stock price of PT. Indonesian telecommunications for the next 10 days. The study attempts to conduct stock price forecasting with the ARCH-GARCH model. The result of the forecasting of the share price of PT. Indonesian telecommunications from January 07, 2021 to January 20, 2021 respectively except for holidays is IDR 3374.884, IDR 3379.617,IDR 3378.305, IDR 3376.610, IDR 3380.050, IDR 3376.372, IDR 3379.071, IDR 3377.964, IDR 3377.515, IDR 3379.002. Forecasting results are close to factual data for forecasting the next 10 days so that they can be taken into consideration in investing by investors.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

Varian

Publisher

Subject

Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Mathematics Social Sciences Other

Description

Jurnal Varian adalah salah satu Jurnal Ilmiah yang terdapat di Universitas Bumigora. Jurnal ini bertujuan untuk memberikan wadah atau sarana publikasi bagi para dosen, peneliti dan praktisi baik di lingkungan internal maupun eksternal Universitas Bumigora Mataram. Jurnal ini terbit 2 (dua) kali ...